Closing Market Commentary For 08-06-2013
Markets closed down after a halfhearted attempt to slither upwards from the morning lows. As the volume fell to anemic levels the HFT computers took over and melted the averages upward – just more manipulation.
What is going to happen tomorrow morning? If I knew I would be driving down to the beach house in my Bentley. You are probably wondering what my ‘ha-ha’ (guess) for tomorrow is; please read on.
My first thought is that we will see something that is negative, but mostly sideways and very low volume making any profit taking slim to none. I do see the market place on shaky ground more so than ever before and it wouldn’t take much to take out the first floor of this house of cards.
I again remind all to be careful of your stops being to close as you do not want to be one of those folks that gets stopped out only to see the markets rise.
Again, I am not exactly a fan of the Hindenburg Oman, but it could be one more piece to the TA puzzle. I do believe we are going to see a BIG correction. Some pundits say September / October time frame and others say the first quarter of 2014, time will tell.
Another day, another Hindenburg Omen sighting as Fed speeches did little to provide moar exuberance as better-than-expected data keeps hinting at an early Taper and removal of the punchbowl.
Stocks have seen two days in a row of ‘redness’ with a mind-numbing loss of around 0.7% for the S&P 500 (and more for the Trannies) that sparked a litany of ‘off-the-lows’ and ‘moral victory for the bulls’ comments as volume remained lack-luster at best (all compressed into the sell-off phase into the European close).
The Taper picture remains a little unclear across asset-classes though; as gold, silver, and oil dropped (Taper on), Bonds unch (Taper hhmm), stocks down led by builders (Taper on), USD weakness (Taper not on) but JPY strength was the driver (carry unwind on Taper on).
VIX pressed up towards 13% (its biggest rise in 7 weeks) and credit is underperforming.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15519 down 93 or -0.60%.
The SP500 is at 1697 down 10 or -0.57%.
SPY is at 169.82 down 0.97 or -0.57%.
The $RUT is at 1052 down 11 or -1.02%.
NASDAQ is at 3666 down 27 or -0.74%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3122 down 21 or -0.67%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish turning negative and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 107.23 and 104.87 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading up at 105.47.
Brent crude is trading between 109.22 and 107.47 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading up at 108.16.
Gold fell from 1306.04 earlier to 1278.80 and is currently trading up at 1283.30.
Dr. Copper is at 3.173 falling from 3.208 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.01 and 81.56 and is currently trading sideways at 81.66, the bias is currently negative.
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Written by Gary