Closing Market Commentary For 07-15-2013
Markets melted up all session until 14:46 where something or someone got tired and the numbers began to slide a ‘tad’. Red volume was elevated, but still considered low at the close as the $VIX was in a melt up mode at 13.77.
By 4 pm the averages looked tired but investors are unable to guess what Mr. Market has in store for tomorrow.
MY indicators are mostly mixed but one side shows a 60% buy and a 25% sell, yet I do not trust Mr. Market to continue this upward bull run. So many gaps below current position in the oils and the markets themselves, look for a pull back.
Thank to Boeing’s ‘recovery’ – since there was no fire today – the Dow gained 20 points (of which 29 points were Boeing). The S&P managed new closing all-time highs on the lowest non-holiday volume day of the year.
Bonds were well bid early in following the bad-is-better retail sales print (-7bps from early high yields). Commodities were leaking lower into the early macro data but as soon as it was confirmed that the US consumer is tapped out – gold, silver, copper, and WTI all started to surge higher.
Homebuilders notably underperformed, Utilities significantly outperformed with the rest treading water. Early USD strength (on ripping JPY weakness) was removed rapidly following the ‘yes, the US economy is dismal’ confirming data and the slide continued all day – leaving the USD practically unchanged by the close.
This is the 14th up-day in a row for the Nasdaq (longest streak since May 1990), the Russell is over 15% above its 200DMA (a multi-year record), and volume has cratered in the last 14 days.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15484 up 20 or 0.13%.
The SP500 is at 1682 up 2 or 0.14%.
SPY is at 168.16 up 0.65 or 0.40%.
The $RUT is at 1043 up 6.77 or 0.65%.
NASDAQ is at 3607 up 7 or 0.21%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3080 up 0.78 or 0.03%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is slightly negative.
WTI oil is trading between 106.17 and 104.30 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 105.53. (Gap at 106.17)
Brent crude is trading between 109.10 and 107.12 today. The session bias is bullish to neutral and is currently trading up at 107.91. (Gap at 109.06)
Gold fell from 1293.69 earlier to 1273.32 and is currently trading down at 1283.35.
Dr. Copper is at 3.142 fell from 3.168 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 83.62 and 83.03 and is currently trading down at 83.27, the bias is currently bearish.
The 500 at the close. (The green line is an gap made on Friday, now one of many below the present position – look for a pull-back soon.)
The DOW at the close.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary