Opening Market Commentary For 04-26-2013
Premarkets were down +0.25% and didn’t react to the less than good GDP numbers of 2.5% down from 4.0% and less than the 3.0% expected.
Interestingly the markets opened down -0.10% and quickly started to melt up with the DOW being the first (and only one) to display green numbers. Because of the low volume I suspect this melting up has more to do with the HFT algo computers than anything else.
By 10 am the averages were mostly in the red, flat and little direction. When the University of Michigan Confidence reported in at 76.4 Vs the 73.5 expected and 72.3 prior, the averages melted up above yesterdays closing numbers with the small caps remaining below.
Just as fast as they melted up the averages reversed course and started back down to the opening numbers with the DOW firmly in the green. I do not believe this gyrations has any bias on the market direction at this point because of the anemic volume. The ‘dippers’ are doing their thing and there is not much profit taking.
Overhyped Q1 GDP Grows By Only 2.5%, Biggest Miss To Expectations Since September 2011
The good part of the GDP report is that consumers look interested in spending again. The bad part is that firms aren’t. . . (DailyFX)
Now that we have the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth in both rate of change and absolute current dollar terms ($16,010 billion), we can finally assign the appropriate debt number, which we know on a daily basis and which was $16,771.4 billion as of March 31, to the growth number.
The end result: as of March 31, 2013, the US debt/GDP was 104.8%, up from 103% as of December 31, 2012 or a debt growth rate that would make the most insolvent Eurozone nation blush.
There was a time when people were concerned about this unsustainable trajectory, but then there was an infamous excel error, and now nobody cares anymore.
The U.S. economy accelerated at the beginning of the year, but don’t get too excited. Economists aren’t optimistic the trend will continue in the months ahead.
Gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic output — rose at a 2.5% annual pace in the first three months of the year, driven largely by a pickup in consumer spending on services, the Commerce Department said.
Consumer spending, which alone accounts for roughly two-thirds of GDP, rose at a 3.2% annual pace.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and looks to be this way all week. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs and still may be too early to start shorting.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly ‘guessing’, of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Falls to 84% Down From 90% and Secondaries Confirm “Tradable” This might be true, but still above 75%? Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering current events. The trading range is so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 14717 up 12 or 0.09%.
The SP500 is at 1581 down 4 or -0.23%.
SPY is at 158.07 down 0.45 or -0.29%.
The $RUT is at 935.54 down 5 or -0.50%.
NASDAQ is at 3275 down 15 or -0.46%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2834 down 15 or -0.51%. (A lot of analysts are currently watching the 100 for a heads and shoulder formation.)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 93.87 and 92.85 today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading up at 93.14.
More Widening For The Brent/WTI Spread ahead?
Brent crude is trading between 103.48 and 102.57 today. The session bias is neutral to bearish and is currently trading up at 103.03.
Gold fell from 1484.86 earlier to 1458.72 and is currently trading up at 1470.05.
Here’s why copper has lost its indicator role
Dr. Copper is at 3.217 falling from 3.281 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.91 and 82.56 and is currently trading up at 82.63, the bias is currently negative.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary
<p><strong><span style=”font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;”><span style=”font-size: medium;”>Written by <a rel=””author”” href=”/files/gary.htm”>Gary</a></span></span></strong></p>
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Markets Open Down, Flat And Lackluster
Opening Market Commentary For 04-26-2013
Premarkets were down +0.25% and didn’t react to the less than good GDP numbers of 2.5% down from 4.0% and less than the 3.0% expected.
Interestingly the markets opened down -0.10% and quickly started to melt up with the DOW being the first (and only one) to display green numbers. Because of the low volume I suspect this melting up has more to do with the HFT algo computers than anything else.
By 10 am the averages were mostly in the red, flat and little direction. When the University of Michigan Confidence reported in at 76.4 Vs the 73.5 expected and 72.3 prior, the averages melted up above yesterdays closing numbers with the small caps remaining below.
<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>
Just as fast as they melted up the averages reversed course and started back down to the opening numbers with the DOW firmly in the green. I do not believe this gyrations has any bias on the market direction at this point because of the anemic volume. The ‘dippers’ are doing their thing and there is not much profit taking.
Overhyped Q1 GDP Grows By Only 2.5%, Biggest Miss To Expectations Since September 2011
The good part of the GDP report is that consumers look interested in spending again. The bad part is that firms aren’t. . . (DailyFX)
(dailyfx chart here)
http://www.dailyfx.com/
Now that we have the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth in both rate of change and absolute current dollar terms ($16,010 billion), we can finally assign the appropriate debt number, which we know on a daily basis and which was $16,771.4 billion as of March 31, to the growth number.
The end result: as of March 31, 2013, the US debt/GDP was 104.8%, up from 103% as of December 31, 2012 or a debt growth rate that would make the most insolvent Eurozone nation blush.
There was a time when people were concerned about this unsustainable trajectory, but then there was an infamous excel error, and now nobody cares anymore.
The U.S. economy accelerated at the beginning of the year, but don’t get too excited. Economists aren’t optimistic the trend will continue in the months ahead.
Gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic output — rose at a 2.5% annual pace in the first three months of the year, driven largely by a pickup in consumer spending on services, the Commerce Department said.
Consumer spending, which alone accounts for roughly two-thirds of GDP, rose at a 3.2% annual pace.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and looks to be this way all week. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs and still may be too early to start shorting.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly ‘guessing’, of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Falls to 84% Down From 90% and Secondaries Confirm “Tradable” This might be true, but still above 75%? Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering current events. The trading range is so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
Up = xxxxxxxxxx Down = xxxxxxxxxxx
The DOW at 10:15 is at 14717 up 12 or 0.09%.
The SP500 is at 1581 down 4 or -0.23%.
SPY is at 158.07 down 0.45 or -0.29%.
The $RUT is at 935.54 down 5 or -0.50%.
NASDAQ is at 3275 down 15 or -0.46%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2834 down 15 or -0.51%. (A lot of analysts are currently watching the 100 for a heads and shoulder formation.)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 93.87 and 92.85 today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading up at 93.14.
More Widening For The Brent/WTI Spread ahead?
Brent crude is trading between 103.48 and 102.57 today. The session bias is neutral to bearish and is currently trading up at 103.03.
Gold fell from 1484.86 earlier to 1458.72 and is currently trading up at 1470.05.
Here’s why copper has lost its indicator role
Dr. Copper is at 3.217 falling from 3.281 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.91 and 82.56 and is currently trading up at 82.63, the bias is currently negative.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary
