Opening Market Commentary For 04-23-2013
Premarkets were up +0.20% and lately that hasn’t meant much in direction. Most direction has been because of the melting process dirived from the HFT computers especially when volumes are low.
Markets opened by gaping up and by 10 the overall volume was starting to fall with heavy red spikes of profit taking along with moderate green volume.
There are more bulls, but when the profit takers make their mark someone is getting fleeced.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and looks to be this way all week. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs and still may be too early to start shorting.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly ‘guessing’, of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Falls to 84% Down From 90% and Secondaries Confirm “Tradable” This might be true, but still above 75%? Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering current events. The trading range is so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:30 is at 14703 up 137 or 0.93%.
The SP500 is at 1576 up 14 or 0.88%.
SPY is at 157.55 up 1.40 or 0.89%.
The $RUT is at 924.64 up 10 or 1.07%.
NASDAQ is at 3265 up 32 or 0.98%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2835 up 26 or 0.91%. (A lot of analysts are currently watching the 100 for a heads and shoulder formation.)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil is trading between 83.39 and 87.84 today. The session bias is bearish to neutral and is currently trading up at 88.47.
Brent crude is trading between 100.60 and 98.80 today. The session bias is bearish to neutral and is currently trading up at 99.47.
Gold fell from 1427.50 earlier to 1404.50 and is currently trading down at 1409.67.
Dr. Copper is at 3.110 rising from 3.059 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.66 and 83.17 and is currently trading down at 83.00, the bias is currently bullish to neutral.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary