Opening Market Commentary For 04-19-2013
Premarket was up +0.40% as suspected it would be yesterday afternoon, but as we approached the opening bell it started to melt down. There is no US financial news today as we enter the weekend and anything coming out of the EU will be enough to send the markets one way or the other.
The markets opened flat and soon started melting upwards on low to moderate volume. By 10 am the green volume started to fall off significantly as the ‘dippers’ ran out of steam. It is still a mixed market unsure what direction the session is eventually going to take today.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and this morning was also very narrow. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in long to catch the highs and still may be too early to start shorting.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly ‘guessing’, of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Rises to 90% and Secondaries Confirm “Tradable” This might be true (and surprising this week anyway), but challenging to deal with considering current events. The trading range is so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 14505 down 28 or -0.19%.
The SP500 is at 1548 up 7 or 0.48%.
SPY is at 154.86 up 0.70 or 0.45%.
The $RUT is at 905.43 up 4 or 0.43%.
NASDAQ is at 3192 up 26 or 0.82%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2770 up 28 or 1.02%. (A lot of analysts are currently watching the 100.)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bearish and the current bias is bullish.
WTI oil is trading between 89.01 and 87.97 today. The session is bearish and is currently trading up at 88.34.
Brent crude is trading between100.33 and 99.21 today. The session appears to be bearish and is currently trading down at 99.39.
Gold fell from 14234.00 earlier to 1398.78 and is currently trading up at 1403.55.
Dr. Copper fell from 3.20 earlier to the current price of 3.122.
The US dollar is trading between 82.69 and 82.41 and is currently trading up at 82.49, the bias is currently bearish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary