Opening Market Commentary For 01-09-2013
Premarkets were up a bit and not unexpected as I am expecting this trend of a tight and narrow trading range to continue for a couple more sessions. A break out, if anyone can call it that will be subtle but positive as Mr. market grabs for the last gold ring. Just be on the outlook that there may be a few more rings to grab.
Markets opened on moderate low volume mostly green and by 10 it turned to red, then back to green as the ‘dippers’ are convinced now is the time to buy. I expect some more weakness to creep in before the day is out.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend again this morning. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly ‘guessing’, of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:00 is at 13405 up 76 or 0.57%.
The SP500 is at 1463 up 6 or 0.44%.
SPY is at 146.21 up 0.69 or 0.47%.
The $RUT is at 879.02 up 4.33 or 0.50%.
NASDAQ is at 3105 up 13 or 0.42%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil was trading sideways this morning and is currently trading up at 93.54 trading between 93.80 and 92.40 and the bias is positive.
Brent crude was trading sideways earlier and is currently trading down at 111.73 trading between 112.45 and 110.55 and the bias is neutral.
Gold was mixed this morning. Currently trading down at 1657.02, trading range is between 1665.62 and 1643.80 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.70 up from 3.67 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 80.45 earlier to 80.74 and is currently trading down at 80.69.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary