Global Economic Intersection
Advertisement
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
Global Economic Intersection
No Result
View All Result

To Buy Or Not To Buy; Shorting May Be The Answer

admin by admin
March 20, 2012
in Uncategorized
0
0
SHARES
0
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

For the midday report there is little I can add to the otherwise lackluster trading day although there has been a little action of a rising market, still within very tight range. The volume is a tad better than it has been for months, but has fallen off as the day progresses. There is lots of talk as of late about possibilities of market tops, strengthening positions of cash and general ‘better watch out’ as the markets have shown a nice run up after penetrating the so-called resistance of the year.

SSO is at 58.22, the DOW is at 13183, the 500 is at 1404, SPY at 140.37, GLD at 159.93 and oil at 105.48.

Then there were calls that the Russell 2000 HAD to rise or the large caps would falter and die. The $RUT did dramatically rise to new heights but the DOW did nothing and today it looks like and investment that went bad. Is this the sign heralding a correction is coming, the signal we have been waiting for is this just a technical breathing spell. The old adage of sell in May is quickly approaching and beware of the Ides of March. O.K. the 15th was last week, but you get the point. Erik points out my feelings as well.

Stock Market Risk Rises To Historical Extreme by Erik McCurdy

These highly reliable computer models indicate that the current risk/return profile of the stock market is in the worst 1 percent of all historical observations. In other words, from both an investing and a trading perspective, our models indicate that now is one of the riskiest times to be long stocks during the last 80 years. It is highly likely that the cyclical bull market from early 2009 is in the final stage of its development and it is also highly likely that the rally from October of last year will be followed by a violent overbought correction that will retrace a majority, if not all, of the gains logged during the first quarter of 2012.

It is highly likely that anyone entering the market from the long side at these levels will suffer substantial losses sometime during the next few months, so we urge you to remain defensive.

I have sensed the market had reached its peak some weeks ago as pointed out in my articles. The Greek drama pushed it to almost unbearable heights and then the news went away. As the European news subsided and feed on “Hopium” the markets continued to rise blowing away the supposed difficult to impossible zones of resistance, surprising even me.

The question of ‘what is really happening’ is an everyday occurrence as anyone who watches and follows the daily micro trend of the markets could clearly see that this emperor really didn’t have any clothes, so why all the excitement? I guess I wanted to see a bolt of lighting shoot from the sky and a heavenly voice declare the ‘End is Near’. That didn’t happen or at least I was unaware Zeus was even in town. The signs are there and I feel they are valid except for the one signal of high volume I would love to see.  Further data to a reversing market to consider.

@expertstocktiming: “If there was a negative to point out on today’s chart, it would be that a negative divergence is appearing.   Basically, as the rally matures and moves higher, the level of Accumulation has decreased as you can see, therefore it is negatively divergent.

But, that is what Institutions do … they load up before the move, and lessen their exposure (taking selective profits) as the rally matures.   The concern about negative divergences, is they tell you that a market condition may be getting closer to a directional change. (Read More)

All along I have questioned the employment data and yes I too questioned the medias incessant, if not over exuberance, in reporting misleading first financial reports. They would pen glowing reports of employment problems are a thing of the past and everyone would soon get a job as the economy is improving by leaps and bounds. My skepticism falls in the category of how can the markets continue to rise in face of a looming recession in Europe, a declining GDP and lowering corporate profits to name just a few. That is another question I also ask myself everyday. David discusses this very topic of disconnect.

The Disconnect Between The Economic Data And Sentiment by David I. Templeton

“Recent unemployment data released by the Labor Department continues to indicate the economy is adding 200,000 jobs per month. This has been the case for the last three months. Something about the U.S. economy isn’t adding up.

At 8.3%, the unemployment rate has fallen 0.7 percentage point from a year earlier and is down 1.7 percentage points from a peak of 10% in October 2009. And the number of people filing claims for government unemployment benefits has fallen.

Yet the economy is barely growing.

How can an economy that is growing so slowly produce such big declines in unemployment?

TrimTabs thinks the problem lies in the heavily massaged BLS employment data and the highly suspect BEA personal income data.

There is a basic disconnect between the media and the American public,” he said, adding that coverage of the jobs picture has been too positive.”

Words to the wise as we contemplate our quandary on continuing riding the bull market up or easing off. Do we jump ship completely, go to partial cash or try to catch a falling knife. The last option is not one of my favorites as I have seen friends loose great financial positions in a matter of minutes in the process of beating greed. Remember what Pierpont Morgan said, “I made a fortune of getting out too soon”.

My proprietary buy and sell signals are running at 95% sell which was indicated several sessions ago and always precede a market decline of some sort. Could it be a correction or could it be the end of a bull run? We won’t know until Mr. Market tells us, but these signals have been 95% correct over the past several years in predicting a reversal. I’ll admit some, 65%, have taken several weeks for fruition so we may still see a up day or two in the forecast.

@dailymarkets: “A Market Top Is A Process And Not An Event, In Most Cases“

In most cases, and I mean 98% of the time a market that results in a trend change of 10% of more is a process and not an event.  My suggestion is to not guess as to where the market tops out, but rather, wait and watch the road signs. The market will give you lots of indicators that it is starting to stumble, than lose its balance, ultimately pratfalling. Even 1987 has a 14% drop in advance of the Black Monday 23% crash. In 2007-09, we received plenty of warnings before the market reached its 666 lows — down 57%.

Hence, if you are an investor, you should not be thinking about when to jump out, and move to all cash/bonds position. Instead, you should be looking for a variety of signs that suggest it is time to lower your equity exposure as a function of rising risk relative to potential gains.”

For myself, as a trader, this past month or so has not been a good time to test ones trading skills and lately it is down right scary to go long or short. My long view extends out to the 4 pm closing bell and that’s because anything beyond that is a gamble. Now I can’t see investing at all much less than sneaking in a daily trade once in a while. I’ll wait until I can clearly see the environment we are in. And if this mamby pandy stock market continues like it has for the past couple of months, it won’t be good for anyone. Even David is not willing to dip his toe into the waters.

Daily State Of The Markets: Are You A Market Environmentalist? by David Moenning

. . . . . if I can understand why things are happening in the short-term, I shouldn’t be taken by surprise by how the market acts over longer periods of time. And understanding why the market does what it does makes it a heck of a lot easier to stay in tune with the current environment.  . . . emphasize again how important it is to be able to adapt to a changing environment.  . . . knowing the answers to these questions will help you identify the best strategy to employ for a given environment.

The moral of the story is pretty simple … Investors need to employ strategies that can (a) handle both up and down markets, and then (b) be able to adapt to changing markets quickly. Employing such an approach doesn’t mean you won’t ever lose money. But it does mean that you shouldn’t incur losses so large that you can’t recover. As Warren Buffett so famously said, “Rule number one in investing is never lose big money. And then rule number two is to never ever forget rule number one!”

. . . we currently have a cyclical bull market on our hands. And the good news is that the average cyclical bull market that occurs within the context of a secular bear market . . . However, with last year’s cyclical bear still fresh in our minds, we’re not putting our foot to the floor in terms of leverage right now.

Written by Gary

Previous Post

Co-ops: A New Way Battling Unemployment?

Next Post

JOBS Act: Fraud-Friendly and Guarantees Full-Time Jobs for Criminologists

Related Posts

OKX To Stop Operations In Canada By June 22, 2023
Business

OKX To Stop Operations In Canada By June 22, 2023

by John Wanguba
March 20, 2023
Hong Kong To Begin Regulating Crypto In June 2023, 80 Firms Ready To Join
Economics

Hong Kong To Begin Regulating Crypto In June 2023, 80 Firms Ready To Join

by John Wanguba
March 20, 2023
JPMorgan And Other Top U.S. Banks Swamped With New Clients Post SVB Collapse – FT
Business

JPMorgan And Other Top U.S. Banks Swamped With New Clients Post SVB Collapse – FT

by John Wanguba
March 20, 2023
Top Five U.S. Regional Lenders With Most Uninsured Deposits
Business

Top Five U.S. Regional Lenders With Most Uninsured Deposits

by John Wanguba
March 20, 2023
Bitcoin Reaches New Highs, Records Double-Digit Gain As Banking Crisis Fears Increase
Economics

Bitcoin Reaches New Highs, Records Double-Digit Gain As Banking Crisis Fears Increase

by John Wanguba
March 20, 2023
Next Post

JOBS Act: Fraud-Friendly and Guarantees Full-Time Jobs for Criminologists

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Browse by Category

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Browse by Tags

adoption altcoins bank banking banks Binance Bitcoin Bitcoin market Bitcoin mining blockchain BTC business China crypto crypto adoption cryptocurrency crypto exchange crypto market crypto regulation decentralized finance DeFi Elon Musk ETH Ethereum Europe finance FTX inflation investment market analysis Metaverse mining NFT nonfungible tokens oil market price analysis recession regulation Russia stock market technology Tesla the UK the US Twitter

Archives

  • March 2023
  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • November 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • May 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • August 2010
  • August 2009

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized
Global Economic Intersection

After nearly 11 years of 24/7/365 operation, Global Economic Intersection co-founders Steven Hansen and John Lounsbury are retiring. The new owner, a global media company in London, is in the process of completing the set-up of Global Economic Intersection files in their system and publishing platform. The official website ownership transfer took place on 24 August.

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Recent Posts

  • OKX To Stop Operations In Canada By June 22, 2023
  • Hong Kong To Begin Regulating Crypto In June 2023, 80 Firms Ready To Join
  • JPMorgan And Other Top U.S. Banks Swamped With New Clients Post SVB Collapse – FT

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Contact Us
  • Bitcoin Robot
    • Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Code
    • Quantum AI
    • eKrona Cryptocurrency
    • Bitcoin Up
    • Bitcoin Prime
    • Yuan Pay Group
    • Immediate Profit
    • BitIQ
    • Bitcoin Loophole
    • Crypto Boom
    • Bitcoin Era
    • Bitcoin Treasure
    • Bitcoin Lucro
    • Bitcoin System
    • Oil Profit
    • The News Spy
    • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Trader
  • Bitcoin Reddit

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

en English
ar Arabicbg Bulgarianda Danishnl Dutchen Englishfi Finnishfr Frenchde Germanel Greekit Italianja Japaneselv Latvianno Norwegianpl Polishpt Portuguesero Romanianes Spanishsv Swedish