Daily Chart: Technical and Cycle Analysis 31 October 2014
by Erik McCurdy, Prometheus Market Insight
The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.
Gold closed sharply lower today, moving down to a new low for the downtrend from July. Technical indicators are extremely bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.
We are 8 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 3. The move well below the last STCL during the beta phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through November 3.
- Last STCL: October 3, 2014
- Cycle Duration: 20 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bearish
- Next STCL Window: Now through November 3.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
- Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 1,250 would predict a move up toward congestion resistance in the 1,280 area.
- Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from July and forecast additional losses.
The bearish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).