Market Instincts: When to Bail

Just some random thoughts today.  I woke up this morning with the overwhelming feeling something was wrong with the market.  Specifically the gold stock market.  I am not Nostradamas, not do I own a Ouija Board.  I have negative feelings about the market, gold, gold stocks, and commodities every once in a while.  The last time was early November 2011.  I did not sell everything, but did lighten up on my gold holdings.   If I would have trusted my instincts completely I would have saved a considerable amount of money.  The next day gold started it’s over $200 free fall.

I subscribe to many market newsletters, newspapers, on line up dates, and check out business websites everyday to see different points of view.  Usually it is just about even, 50% say the market will go up, 50% say it will go down.  Everybody has their reasons for what ever they are predicting and they usually have lots of data to prove it.  I love to see both sides of the arguement and then make up my own mind.  However, there are some days when my gut instincts tell me to do something.  Today was one of those days.  I liquidated all my holdings and bought some puts on GDX.

I love gold, silver, platinum, palladium and all the commodities.  I think they are all in big bull markets, but they do take breathers every once in a while, and sometimes they can be heart stopping.  Time will tell if I am right or wrong about today.  But at least I know I am safe for the day and I can always jump back in.  I have learned the hard way over the years to not dismiss these instincts and gut feelings that I have no control over.

Written by Goldfinger