Global Economic Intersection
Advertisement
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
Global Economic Intersection
No Result
View All Result

With Malice Towards the Yen, Japan’s Abe Saves the Day

admin by admin
November 4, 2014
in Uncategorized
0
0
SHARES
19
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

View from the Hill 04 November 2014

by J. Clinton Hill

With Malice Towards the Yen, Japan’s Abe Saves the DayStocks, which were already rallying from the onset of the week, increased sharply on Friday as the bulls made quick work of any bears lingering around for a late afternoon selloff.  Japan’sPrime Minister, Shinzo Abe, laid his chips on the table with an expansive monetary policy thattranslates into being allinon the war against deflation.  A far cry a royal flush, the Yen went spiraling down the drain on such news and the U.S.

Dollar rebounded fiercely. Such deflationaryfears also robbed gold of much of its luster and stocks resumed center stage. Although Value is waiting in the wings, small caps are the opening act in this phase of the business cycle since they are somewhat insulated from a strong U.S. dollar. They clearly provided market leadership.  Nevertheless, the love for stocks is not an international trend as European, Asian and Latin American equities remain bearish. Miss America continues to rule the investment universe.

Market Condition

It was quite an impressive continuation rally for the market and the only missing ingredient was volume, with the exception of the Russell 2000.  U.S. equity indexes are trading well within the confines of their bullish channels, but the stock market is overbought and overextended at this juncture. As equities are at or approaching key resistance levels, it would not be unfathomable to see them take a pause to consolidate. Our status update has reverted to bullish.



Bullish Events

Central Banks

  • Europe / ECB / M3 Sept2014:  Money supply in the EU increased 2.1% yr/yr vs. prior @ 1.3% andestimates @ 2.0%. Private Sector Lending also improved yr/yr to 1.2%vs. prior @ 1.5%.
  • Europe / Stress Test:  Earlier in the week, the ECB reported most banks within the EU regionsatisfied the financial requirements.  (However, on Thursday, the head of the EU banking zoneauthority forewarned that the recently implemented stress tests were not “foolproof”.)
  • Asia / BOJ / Monetary Policy Announcement Oct302014:  Japan central bank’s monetary policyremained unchanged and matched expectations with accommodative rates @ 0% to 0.1%. Yet, it also surprised the markets by expanding its monetary base to an annual rate of 80 trillion yen ($724bn USD) vs. previous @ 60-70 trillion yen. Essentially, it will be buying JGBs (Japanese Govt Bonds) in the amount of $200 trillion JPY by the end of 2014 vs. $143 trillion JPY in 2013.

Consumer

  • USA / US Consumer Confidence Oct2014:  Despite a spotty recovery, confidence amongst consumers was @ 96.0 vs. prior @ 89.0 and estimates @ 86.8.
  • USA / Consumer Sentiment Oct2014:  Sentiment amongst the American consumer is at its highest level since July 2007 with a reading @ 86.9 vs. prior @ 86.4 and consensus @ 86.4.

Economic Growth

  • USA / GDP Q32014:  Although GDP decelerated, it still indicated robust growth for the U.S. @3.5% vs. prior @ 4.6% and consensus @ 3.0%.
  • USA / Chicago PMI Oct 2014:  This month’s PMI was robustly strong @ 66.2 vs. prior @ 60.5 and consensus @ 60.5.

Employment

  • Europe / Germany / Unemployment Rate Sept 2014:  S.A. employment for Germany declined for the first time since July 2014 by 22k,while its jobless rate was unchanged @ 6.7% vs. previous @6.7% and consensus @ 6.7%.

Energy

  • USA / EIA Petroleum Status Report Week of Oct 24 2014:  Demand for oil and its derivative products increased this week Crude Oil Inventories rose less than expected @ 2.1mm vs. prior @7.1 mm and estimates @ 3.1 mm bbls.  Gasoline supplies dipped 1.2 mm bbls vs. prior @ 1.3 mm and estimates @ 700k.  Distillates declined to 5.3 mm bbls vs. prior @ +1.0 mm and estimates @1.3 mm.

Real Estate

  • USA / Pending Home Sales Sept 2014:  The Pending Home Sales Index rose to 105 vs. prior 104.7 and estimates @ 104.7. Mth/mth, the index improved to 0.3% vs. prior @ 1.0%andestimates @ 0.8%.  A continually improving labor market and low mortgage rates attributed to thismonth’s positive results.
  • Europe / Great Britain / HPI:  The nationwide home price index surpassed expectations @ 0.5%mth/mth vs. prior @ 0.01%and estimates @ 0.3%.

Manufacturing

  • USA / Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Oct2014:Business Activity registered @ 10.5 vs. prior @ 10.8 andestimates @ 7.5, while the Production Index component was 13.7 vs. prior @ 17.6. Manufacturingconditions still indicate growth, but at a decelerating pace.
  • Europe / Italy / Mfg & Mining Survey Oct2014:Sentiment climbed to 96 vs. prior @ 95.5 andestimates @ 95.0.

Production

  • Asia / Japan / Industrial Production Sept2014:The rising son of the east delivered a surprisingmth/mth 2.7% increase vs. prior @ 1.9%and estimates @ 2.2%, while yr/yr results also improvedto 0.8%vs. prior @ 1.6%and estimates @ 0.1%.

Bearish Events

Business Sentiment

  • Europe /Germany / Ifo Survey Oct2014:Weaker expectations prevailed for the sixth consecutivemonth. Economic Sentiment was @ 103.2 vs. prior @ 104.7 and estimates @ 104.0. CurrentConditions were 108.4 vs. prior @ 110.5 and estimates @ 109.8.

Central Banks

  • USA / FOMC Announcement Oct292014:With inflation running below the stimulative rate of 2%,the Federal Reserve left its targeted funds rate unchanged and ranging between 0% and 0.25%,which reflects its somewhat dovish and accommodative posture. As expected, it has ended its QEprogram as of October 2014 and will no longer be actively purchasing bonds in the market basedupon its assessment of an improved job market and moderate economic growth.

Consumer

  • Europe / Germany / Retail Sales Sept2014:Mth/mth retail sales declined 3.2%vs. prior revised@ 1.5%. While yr/yr sales increased 2.9%, the data is skewed due to a greater number of shoppingdays this year.
  • France / Consumer Mfg Goods Consumption Sept2014:Monthly Household spending formanufactured goods dropped to 0.7%vs. prior @ 1.0% and consensus @ 0.3%.Annually, itdeclined to 0.7% vs. prior @ 1.6%.
  • Asia / Japan / Household Spending Sept2014:The recently added sales tax is negativelyaffecting consumer spending @ 5.6%vs. prior @ 4.7%and estimates @ 3.9%.

Employment

  • Asia / Japan / Unemployment Rate Sept2014:Asia’s rising son experienced an increase in itsunemployment rate to 3.6% vs. prior @ 3.5% and estimates @ 3.5%.

Inflation

  • Europe / France / PPI Sept2014:Producer prices rebounded monthly to 0.5% vs. prior revised @0.4%and consensus @ 0.0%. Annually, they are still down 1.4%vs. prior revised @ 1.5%.
  • Europe / Germany / CPI Oct2014:Mth/mth Consumer Prices receded to 0.3%vs. prior @ 0.0%and estimates @ 0.1%,while yr/yr inflation remained unchanged @ 0.8% vs. prior @ 0.8% andestimates @ 0.9%.
  • Asia / Japan / Sept2014:Inflation remains well below the targeted 2% rate with actual consumerprices rising only 0.2% mth/mth vs. prior @ 0.2%. Yr/Yr inflation was 3.2% vs. prior @ 3.2% butthis number does not reflect actual conditions due to the impact and inclusion of the recentlyimposed sales tax.

Manufacturing

  • USA / Durable Goods Orders Sept2014:The bellwether economic indicator disappointed to thedownside with New Orders @ 1.3%mth/mth vs. prior @ 18.3%and estimates @ 0.9%; and 3.3%yr/yr vs. prior @ 8.9% and estimates @ 8.7%.
  • Asia / China / CFPL Mfg PMI Oct2014:China’s PMI index hit an 8monthlow @ 50.8 vs. prior @51.1 and consensus @ 51.2.

Real Estate

  • USA / CaseShillerHome Price Index Aug2014:Home prices, seasonally adjusted, declined forthe 4th consecutive month to 0.1%vs. prior @ 0.5%and estimates @ 0.1%.

Geopolitical

  • Europe / Russia / Currency Value: The Russian Ruble depreciated to its lowest level @ 42.597vs. the U.S. Dollar

Neutral Events

Consumer

  • USA / Personal Income and Spending Sept2014:Personal Income showed a modest monthlyincrease @ 0.2% vs. prior @ 0.3% and consensus @ 0.3% while spending contracted monthly @0.2%vs. prior @ 0.5% and consensus @ 0.1%.

Economic Growth

  • Canada / GDP Aug2014:Monthly GDP contracted to 0.1%vs. prior @ 0.0% and consensus @0.0% while annual growth came in @ 2.2% vs. prior @ 2.5%.

Economic Sentiment

  • Europe / Economic Sentiment Oct2014:Economic Sentiment in the EU moved above thepsychological 100 level @ 100.7 vs. prior @ 99.9 and estimates @ 99.5. Overall, the report showsvery little change and is still relatively weak vs. 3 years or only 3 months ago.

Employment

  • USA / Jobless Claims week of Oct252014:The overall trend for New Jobless Claims remainssignificantly lower than levels 1 to 2 years ago. However, this week’s report showed an increase of3000 @ 287k vs. prior @ 284k and estimates @ 280k. The 4weekmoving average was unchanged@ 281k vs. prior @ 281k and consensus @ 281.5k.
  • Europe / Unemployment Rate Sept2014:The unemployment rate remained unchanged @11.5%, which was equivalent to the prior month and current expectations.

Inflation

  • USA / Employment Cost Index Q32014:Employment costs were 0.7% higher vs. prior quarter @0.7% and consensus @ 0.5%. The annual increase was 2.2% vs. prior @ 2.2%.
  • Europe / Italy / CPI Oct2014:Consumer prices increased more than expected monthly @ 0.1%and prior @ 0.4%and consensus @ 0.2%.Yr/yr inflation also improved to 0.1% vs. prior @ 0.2%.
  • Europe / HCIP Oct2014:The harmonized index of consumer prices increased yr/yr to 0.4% vs.prior @ 0.4%.

ETF Weekly Summary of Capital Markets


*For your reference, “TWS” is a proprietary indicator that measures relative strength in a weighted manner overvarious time frames. “Vol %” compares weekly volume to average weekly volume and changes are expressed inpercentages. At times, our investment bias indicator may temporarily display conflicting views between ETFs andthe underlying indexes or securities they are designed to mimic or represent, but such divergences are temporarilyshorttermand may be due to variances in price, volume and investment allocation to their component assets.

The Road Ahead

Disclaimer: Hillbent does not provide individualized market advice. The information we publish regardssecurities in which we believe our readers may be interested and our reports reflect our sincereopinions. Nevertheless, they are not intended to be personalized recommendations to buy, hold, orsell securities. Investments in the securities markets, and especially in options, are speculative andinvolve substantial risk. Each individual investor should determine their respective appropriate levelof risk. It is recommended that you seek personal advice from your professional investment advisorand conduct further independent due diligence research before acting on information published in anyof our reports. Most of our information is derived directly from information published by thecompanies on which we report and/or from other sources we deem to be reliable, without ourindependent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure the completeness or accuracy of informationcontained within these reports and we do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of anyaction which you take in reliance on our statements. Hillbent.com, Inc. or its affiliates may ownpositions in the equities mentioned in our reports. We do not receive any compensation from any ofthe companies covered in our reports.

Previous Post

Market Commentary: Afternoon Markets Quiet, End In Red And On Low Volume

Next Post

Electric Car Sales Are Skyrocketing In Georgia

Related Posts

Bitcoin Whales Invest Aggressively As Small Holders Divest
Economics

Bitcoin Whales Invest Aggressively As Small Holders Divest

by John Wanguba
June 7, 2023
Why Is The SEC Suing Binance?
Business

Why Is The SEC Suing Binance?

by John Wanguba
June 6, 2023
Bitcoin Has Been ‘Killed’ 474 Times But Its Still Alive And Kicking
Economics

Bitcoin Has Been ‘Killed’ 474 Times But Its Still Alive And Kicking

by John Wanguba
June 5, 2023
Japanese Regulators Issue Stern Warning To OpenAI For Data Collection
Business

Japanese Regulators Issue Stern Warning To OpenAI For Data Collection

by John Wanguba
June 5, 2023
What Are BRC-30 Tokens?
Econ Intersect News

What Are BRC-30 Tokens?

by John Wanguba
June 2, 2023
Next Post

Electric Car Sales Are Skyrocketing In Georgia

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Browse by Category

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Browse by Tags

adoption altcoins bank banking banks Binance Bitcoin Bitcoin adoption Bitcoin market blockchain BTC business China crypto crypto adoption cryptocurrency crypto exchange crypto market crypto regulation decentralized finance DeFi Elon Musk ETH Ethereum Europe Federal Reserve finance FTX inflation investment market analysis Metaverse NFT nonfungible tokens oil market price analysis recession regulation Russia stock market technology Tesla the UK the US Twitter

Archives

  • June 2023
  • May 2023
  • April 2023
  • March 2023
  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • November 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • May 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • August 2010
  • August 2009

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized
Global Economic Intersection

After nearly 11 years of 24/7/365 operation, Global Economic Intersection co-founders Steven Hansen and John Lounsbury are retiring. The new owner, a global media company in London, is in the process of completing the set-up of Global Economic Intersection files in their system and publishing platform. The official website ownership transfer took place on 24 August.

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Recent Posts

  • Bitcoin Whales Invest Aggressively As Small Holders Divest
  • Why Is The SEC Suing Binance?
  • Bitcoin Has Been ‘Killed’ 474 Times But Its Still Alive And Kicking

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Contact Us
  • Bitcoin Robot
    • Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Code
    • Quantum AI
    • eKrona Cryptocurrency
    • Bitcoin Up
    • Bitcoin Prime
    • Yuan Pay Group
    • Immediate Profit
    • BitIQ
    • Bitcoin Loophole
    • Crypto Boom
    • Bitcoin Era
    • Bitcoin Treasure
    • Bitcoin Lucro
    • Bitcoin System
    • Oil Profit
    • The News Spy
    • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Trader
  • Bitcoin Reddit

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

en English
ar Arabicbg Bulgarianda Danishnl Dutchen Englishfi Finnishfr Frenchde Germanel Greekit Italianja Japaneselv Latvianno Norwegianpl Polishpt Portuguesero Romanianes Spanishsv Swedish