Global Economic Intersection
Advertisement
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
Global Economic Intersection
No Result
View All Result

Why Practicing Caution Best Strategy for Investors These Days

admin by admin
June 17, 2013
in Uncategorized
0
0
SHARES
2
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Written by Michael Lombardi, Profit Confidential

Economic conditions in the global economy are taking a quick turn in the wrong way!

Consider the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the U.S. economy tracked by the Institute of Supply Management. Last month it contracted for the first time since November of 2012 and only the second time since July of 2009!

The PMI registered 49.0 in May, compared to 50.7 in April. (Source: Institute of Supply Management, June 3, 2013.) Any reading below 50 suggests the manufacturing sector is experiencing a contraction.

But it’s not just the U.S. economy that’s experiencing a contraction in manufacturing (and affirming the possibility of an economic slowdown). China, the second-biggest hub in the global economy, is seeing the same. In May, the Chinese PMI also showed contraction. The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI registered at 49.2 in May, compared to 50.4 in April. (Source: Markit, June 3, 2013.) Again, any reading below 50 suggests a contraction in the manufacturing sector-which happens to be China’s biggest industry.

Germany, the fourth-biggest producer in the global economy, has been seeing its manufacturing sector contract for some time now. The German PMI registered below 50 in May, the same month the International Monetary Fund slashed the country’s growth outlook in half! The German economy is expected to grow by only 0.3% this year, compared to 0.6% in its previous forecast. (Source: Wall Street Journal, June 3, 2013.)

All of this shouldn’t come as a surprise to Profit Confidential readers. I have been harping on about this issue in these pages for some time now: the global economy is on the brink of an economic slowdown.

Warning: We have a significant amount of information pouring in each day suggesting an economic slowdown in the global economy is pacing faster. Remember, the U.S. economy is very reactive to the global economy, and the direction of the economic trajectory and the stock market are highly dependent on it.

Unfortunately, to fix these softening economies, central banks in the global economy have taken the same approach as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan-lower interest rates and print more money.

Dear reader, the problem in the global economy is that demand is anemic; printing more paper money doesn’t create demand.

Being cautious is the best investment strategy right now.

••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Michael’s Personal Notes:

As economic conditions in the U.S. and the global economy deteriorate, and as central banks around the world print more money in their misguided attempts to spur growth, more and more analysts are saying that gold bullion‘s best days are behind it. Their reasoning: the economy is improving, the Fed will cut back on its monetary stimulus, the worst is behind us, and there’s no more crisis, so there’s no more reason for gold to rise – this is the exact opposite of what I’m saying!

The gold bears fail to realize there are fundamental forces at play behind the gold bullion bull market.

Central banks around the world are looking at gold bullion as an alternative to the currencies they hold in their reserves. It is well documented in these pages how major central banks like the ones from Russia and Turkey continue to buy gold bullion.

Then there is the central bank of China. Its official reserve reached a value of $3.44 trillion in the first quarter of 2013-similar to the size of Germany’s economy. China increased its reserve by $128 billion in the first quarter, making it the biggest increase in reserve since the second quarter of 2011. (Source: Financial Times, April 11, 2013.) My bet is that most of that reserve is in U.S. dollars, which China would desperately like to get rid of.

With that said, China doesn’t have as much gold bullion to back its reserves as countries like the U.S., Germany, and France have. As a matter of fact, the Chinese central bank only holds 1.6% of its reserves in gold bullion, compared to 75.6% for the U.S. and 72.0% for Germany. (Source: World Gold Council, May 2013.)

To bring its total gold bullion holdings to 10% of its reserves, the central bank of China would need to allocate about $344 billion of its reserves to buy gold bullion.

Add strong demand from countries like India to the fact that China needs to increase its gold reserves, and the fundamental demand behind gold bullion is clear. According to the World Gold Council’s estimates, demand for gold bullion in India is expected to jump 150% by the end of June as compared to last year. (Source: Wall Street Journal, June 3, 2013.)

The amount of gold bullion and silver imported in India reached $7.5 billion in April – more than double the amount from a year earlier. The Indian government has increased its import tax from two percent to six percent in a matter of just 1.5 years to curb demand. (Source: Wall Street Journal, May 20, 2013.)

The demand for gold bullion is as strong as ever.

What He Said:

According to Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, January 10, 2008, [WCI Communities, the largest U.S. luxury home builder, filed for Chapter 11 protection on August 4, 2008]:

“Home-building in the U.S. will enter a quasi depression state in 2008 and the construction industry will make 2008 a record year for pink slips. I predict a major homebuilder will go bankrupt in 2008.”

Previous Post

Sunday Night Headlines from China, 16 June 2013

Next Post

The Irrelevance of Equilibrium Economics

Related Posts

Bitcoin Flirts With $24K, How High Will It Go?
Economics

Bitcoin Flirts With $24K, How High Will It Go?

by John Wanguba
February 3, 2023
Venezuela's PDVSA Toughens Oil Prepayment Terms
Business

Venezuela’s PDVSA Toughens Oil Prepayment Terms

by John Wanguba
February 2, 2023
German Economy Unexpectedly Contracts In Q4, Renewing Recession Fears
Economics

German Economy Unexpectedly Contracts In Q4, Renewing Recession Fears

by John Wanguba
February 2, 2023
Judge Dismisses Proposed Class-Action Suit Claiming Coinbase Securities Sales
Business

Judge Dismisses Proposed Class-Action Suit Claiming Coinbase Securities Sales

by John Wanguba
February 2, 2023
Aesop Targeted In $2bn Bidding War Between French Groups
Business

Aesop Targeted In $2bn Bidding War Between French Groups

by John Wanguba
February 1, 2023
Next Post

The Irrelevance of Equilibrium Economics

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Browse by Category

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Browse by Tags

adoption altcoins banking banks Binance Bitcoin Bitcoin adoption Bitcoin market Bitcoin mining blockchain BTC business China crypto crypto adoption cryptocurrency crypto exchange crypto market crypto regulation decentralized finance DeFi Elon Musk ETH Ethereum Europe finance FTX inflation investment market analysis markets Metaverse mining NFT nonfungible tokens oil market price analysis recession regulation Russia technology Tesla the UK the US Twitter

Archives

  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • November 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • May 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • August 2010
  • August 2009

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized
Global Economic Intersection

After nearly 11 years of 24/7/365 operation, Global Economic Intersection co-founders Steven Hansen and John Lounsbury are retiring. The new owner, a global media company in London, is in the process of completing the set-up of Global Economic Intersection files in their system and publishing platform. The official website ownership transfer took place on 24 August.

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Recent Posts

  • Bitcoin Flirts With $24K, How High Will It Go?
  • Venezuela’s PDVSA Toughens Oil Prepayment Terms
  • German Economy Unexpectedly Contracts In Q4, Renewing Recession Fears

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Contact Us
  • Bitcoin Robot
    • Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Code
    • Quantum AI
    • eKrona Cryptocurrency
    • Bitcoin Up
    • Bitcoin Prime
    • Yuan Pay Group
    • Immediate Profit
    • BitIQ
    • Bitcoin Loophole
    • Crypto Boom
    • Bitcoin Era
    • Bitcoin Treasure
    • Bitcoin Lucro
    • Bitcoin System
    • Oil Profit
    • The News Spy
    • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Trader
  • Bitcoin Reddit

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

en English
ar Arabicbg Bulgarianda Danishnl Dutchen Englishfi Finnishfr Frenchde Germanel Greekit Italianja Japaneselv Latvianno Norwegianpl Polishpt Portuguesero Romanianes Spanishsv Swedish