Weekly Dollar Pairs Update

by Nick Simpson, Forex-FX-4X

USD/JPY Analysis (17^th-21^stJune, ’13): Dollar-Yen Technical Update – Ichimoku – Price Action

Dollar/Yen chart update. The USDJPY currency pair is threatening a move to the 92.50 area previous support level as the corrective move lower has gained momentum. The dollar has lost almost 10% since May 22, when it hit a peak around 103.74 yen.
The latest COT data shows large specs at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange had cut their long USD wagers by around 30% on the weekly basis. Traders likewise cut the net short JPY bet by 13% on the prior week to record a $9.5 billion position as of last Tuesday.
Price had found resistance this week when testing the Senkou span A level on the 10/6/13. This is an element of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator that is plotted alongside Senkou span B with the area between filled with shaded indicator lines (the cloud).

In terms of potential support and resistance levels. The 96.70 area remains as a key technical area of interest on any corrective move higher. This has seen significant price pivot zone action over recent months. The 95.00 round number area is an initial obstacle on any upside.
Other technical areas of interest include the Tenkan Sen at 97.11 and the Kijun Sen at 98.75.
The dollar-yen pair has been closely correlated with the Nikkei over recent weeks with a 1.94% Nikkei gain seen on Friday on bargain-hunting. This came after a 6.4% corrective move the day before.

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The EURUSD currency pair has closed the weekly timeframe candle at the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the last major swing. This area is seen as key in the near term and is aligned with the W1 200 SMA.
Friday closed as an inside day candle formation.
Euro/dollar has seen a 212 pip range this past week, representing 89% of the 20 week average (AWR).
Any significant price action developments around 1.3350 could help give a near term directional bias.
There is a descending trend line located around 1.3430 and any upside move may find some kind of resistance near this technical area of interest.
Further to this, key previous resistance is seen approaching the 1.3700 previous swing high level.
The 1.3240 area is seen as key potential near-term EURUSD support – as it marks prior weekly swing high resistance.
The latest COT report data reveals that large specs had cut their short EUR FX wagers by around 85% on the weekly basis – to hit a net $1.4 billion position as of Tuesday.
See the following weekly and daily EURUSD charts for further analysis.

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Additional U.S. dollar pairs are analyzed at Forex-fx-4x: AUDUSD and GBPUSD.