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There is little doubt now, the Dollar topped last week on a slightly extended Day 22 count. The Euro has put in a number of solid days since, but it’s a collapsing Yen that is keeping the Dollar Index from showing us a traditional DC breakdown into a Low. Looking at the Dollar chart clearly shows the Cycle turning lower, as the technical indicators begin to rollover and confirm this action.
As we enter Day 25 of this Cycle, I would expect the decline to gather momentum now and show at least a couple of strong selling sessions. The Europeans have been meeting this week regarding the Greek situation and a new Accord is expected at any time. Although it’s hardly new or market shaking news anymore, any positive announcement should provide the necessary nudge to push the Dollar down into its DCL.
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The biggest and most critical question is not how far this Cycle dips, but just how high will the next (#3) Daily Cycle rise. Unfortunately the 3rd Daily Cycle is the most difficult to read and predict, simply because it could easily go both ways. We find the 3rd Cycle to be the “turning Cycle” because it’s where the top of the more dominant Investor Cycle often occurs. The unknown though is whether the 3rd Cycle will be Left or Right Translated. Essentially the question becomes: Is the Investor Cycle about to top (Left Translated Daily Cycle), or do we have plenty of upside remaining (Right Translated Daily Cycle).
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About the Author
Poly is the founder of “The Financial Tap”, a membership site dedicated to helping traders and investors navigate the markets while increasing their expertise and understanding. Poly has over 20 years of experience in trading the markets, is a life-long student of economics, and has an abiding passion for the financial markets. Much of his investment philosophy is top-down in nature, beginning with a global and macro outlook which is used to create a framework that drives his intermediate investments.
Poly is a leading expert in Market Cycles. His love of Cycles grew after his introduction to the work of Walter Bressert, one of the pioneers in the field. Cycles were a natural fit with Poly’s passion for top-down analysis. As Cycles are intertwined on multiple time frames, understanding the global outlook greatly helps him to identify the long dated Secular Cycles. From that point Poly is better able to identify the shorter Cycles and to build a cohesive investment strategy. Poly’s Cycle Analyzer, a software based analytical and intelligence system, is used to predict the future movements of the major financial markets.
Originally from Sydney, Australia, he is now settled and has been working in New York City for the past 13 years. His background and education is in Computer Sciences and he holds a bachelor’s degree from Monash University in Melbourne Australia. He has extensive experience in the Financial Software area and has served as a senior executive at various Fortune 50 management teams developing financial trading and reporting software.
Happily married with two children, family is a big part of his everyday life. Other passions including golf and long distance running. He plans to complete the 2012 New York City marathon.