Early Headlines: China GDP Surprise: 7% Again, Shanghai Stocks Fall Again, Wholesale Deflation in India, IMF May Reject Greek Deal and More

Early Bird Headlines 15 July 2015

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

U.S.

• Weak U.S. retail sales hint at slower economic growth (Reuters) U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in June as households cut back on purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods, raising concerns the economy was slowing again. Tuesday’s weak retail sales report, together with signs of some softening of the labor market, dampened expectations a bit for an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year, which most economists expect could come in September. Econintersect analysis is not so negative on retail sales data: Headline Retail Sales Bad In June 2015. Our View Is that the Data Is Not Terrible.

EU

• Euro zone wrestles over emergency financing for Greece (Reuters) Euro zone finance officials were struggling on Tuesday to find a way of keeping Greece from defaulting on debt repayments to the ECB next week, with up to six options on the table but none that is problem-free. Greece needs €3.5 billion ($3.9 billion) by Monday to redeem its maturing credit from the European Central Bank. Before this is paid, another €2 billion is past due to the IMF. A total of €12 billion is owed by mid-August.

Greece

• Greek PM scrambles to sell debt deal to party in revolt, skeptical nation (Al Jazeera) Key vote on austerity package planned for Wednesday; meanwhile IMF says emergency cash offered may not be enough.
• IMF signals it could walk away from Greek bailout deal (Financial Times) The IMF (International Monetary Fund) may walk away from the deal agreed by the EU unless Greece receives “substantial debt relief” to make the country’s fiscal situation sustainable.
  

Iran

• Oil rises as Iran exports seen slow to resume after deal (Reuters) Oil rose on Tuesday, reversing early losses and settling higher after it became apparent that a nuclear deal between Tehran and six global powers will not immediately remove sanctions placed on Iranian crude exports. Under the agreement, sanctions imposed by the United States, European Union and United Nations are to be lifted in exchange for curbs on Iran’s nuclear program. But analysts said the fourth largest crude exporter will be able to raise oil shipments only gradually.

India

• Wholesale inflation in negative zone (The Hindu) Deflationary trends continued for the eighth month in a row in June with the wholesale price inflation slipping to –2.4 %, largely due to cheaper vegetable and fuel prices.

China

• China surprises economists with GDP rise of 7% (The Guardian) Many had predicted a lower rate of growth and some have raised doubts over reliability of official numbers. The figure still represents the lowest level of growth since the 2009 global financial crisis but is in line with Beijing’s official target for 2015 of “around 7%”.
• Shanghai Composite widens losses after China GDP (CNBC) Despite strong economic data the Shanghai Composite was down more than 3.5% at midday.
  
• China’s official GDP charade is in—and, surprise! It’s 7% (Quartz) It may be higher than expected (and may be manipulated – see next article) but GDP growth is declining at an impressive rate in China.

• Why Greenpeace Leads Us to Believe Chinese GDP Growth is Low (Balding’s World) Electricity production is growing by only 0.2% year-over-year while GDP is growing 7%. Greenpeace says that “would require electricity efficiency gains never before seen in modern economic history“.
• China pays a price to avert stock market crash (The Business Times) China’s Communist government has averted a stock market crash – for now – but it will take the world’s second-largest economy longer to repair tarnished reform credentials and investment sentiment battered by its heavy-handed intervention.

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