Early Headlines: Turkey Default Risk Increases, UK to Join World Bank Rival, Turkey Credit Risk Degrades, Japan Stocks on Fire and More

Early Bird Headlines 13 March 2015

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

U.S.

• Cold weather chills U.S. retail sales; jobs market firming (Reuters) U.S. Fed may take the hint as retail sales slump again. See GEI Economic Releases for all the detailed data amd analysis.
• Starving Sea Lions Washing Ashore by the Hundreds in California (The New York Times, MSN News)
  

UK

• US attacks UK’s ‘constant accommodation’ with China (Financial Times) U.S. not happy with British decision to join a new China-led financial institution that could rival the World Bank.

Greece

• Respite for Greece– A Pause or New Direction? (Moody’s Analytics) Expected Default Frequency (EDF) for Greece’s one-year debt declined from 4% to 3.69% the last week of February. That is about 1 chance in 26 of default. Less than 6 months ago the EDF was 1 chance in 250 (0.4%). The pause referred to in the headline is with respect to the sharp uptrend in default risk in the past 6 months or so.
• Tsipras promises Greece will keep its word amid German spat (Reuters) Giant German bank flunks U.S. stress tests.

Germany

• German anger over Greek demand for war reparations (The Guardian) Berlin incredulous at justice minister’s threat to seize German property and repatriate antiquities unless €341bn compensation is paid.
• Exclusive: Former risk chief warned Deutsche Bank on stress test, emails show (Reuters)

Turkey

• Political Troubles Drive Turkey’s Credit Risk Higher (Moody’s Analytics) Expected Default Frequency (EDF) “ticked higher” for Turkey the week ending 06 March. The five-year risk rose to 0.28% which seems pretty small (1 chance in 357) but this was 40% higher than six weeks ago when it was 1 chance in 500. It was even less than that in December.

Iraq

• Iraqi forces tighten siege of Tikrit (Al Jazeera) Iraqi commanders said they would not be rushed into a final assault.

Russia

• Is Putin ill? ‘Everything is fine’ despite canceled meetings and old photos (The Guardian) Not seen in public for 8 days now and there are no photos during that time.

India

• China mocks India’s democratic system (The Economic Times)
  

Japan

• Japanese stocks are on fire. But why? (CNN Money) Even though Japan’s economy grew by exactly 0% in 2014 and the country is flirting with a return to deflation, Japanese stocks are still relatively cheap, corporate profits are at record highs and the central bank is willing to pump more money into markets, including buying shares.
  

China

• Behind the reform agenda of China’s national congress (China Spectator)
• FTSE Group launches Chinese onshore bond index (Financial News) According to Moody’s: ““The onshore renminbi bond market has become an important investment avenue for international investors.”

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