Econintersect: The consolidated economic report from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts (Beige Book) said “that national economic activity continued to expand in October and November“. The previous report said that the economy was growing “at a pace similar to that noted in the previous Beige Book“. We have to guess if it is better than the previous period.
Please see the end of this post for words the Federal Reserve uses when the economy is entering a recession.
This report is based on information collected on or before 24 November 2014. The summary for this 03 December 2014 release reads as follows:
Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic activity continued to expand in October and November. A number of Districts also noted that contacts remained optimistic about the outlook for future economic activity. Consumer spending continued to advance in most Districts, and reports on tourism were mostly positive. Employment gains were widespread across Districts, and Districts reporting on business spending generally noted some improvement. Demand for nonfinancial services generally increased. Manufacturing activity strengthened in most Districts. Construction and real estate activity expanded overall, but at a pace that varied by sector and by District. Lending typically held steady or increased. Crop yields were generally good, although overly wet or dry conditions were an issue in some Districts. Most crop prices were lower than last year, but livestock prices were higher. Energy and mining activity was higher on net, though lower oil prices were a concern for the oil industry in the Atlanta and Dallas Districts. Overall price and wage inflation remained subdued.
Click the “source” hyperlink below to read the full report.
Fed’s Words When Economy is entering a Recession
For the December 2007 recession, here is the lead up summary words from the Beige Books:
- 28Nov2007 – “expanding”
- 16Jan2008 – “increasing moderately”
- 05Mar2008 – “growth slowed”
- 16Apr2008 – “weakened”
For the March 2001 recession which ended in November 2001, here are the Beige Book summary words:
- 17Jan2001 – “economic growth slowed”
- 07Mar2001 – “sluggish to modest economic growth”
- 02May2001 – “slow pace of economic activity”
- 13Jun2001 – “little changed or decelerating”
- 08Aug2001 – “slow growth or lateral movement”
- 19Sep2001 – “sluggish”
- 24Oct2001 – “weak economic activity”
- 28Nov2001 – “remained soft”
- 16Jan2002 – “remained weak”
Source: Federal Reserve
