11 October 2014 Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Drops to Levels Not Seen Since June 2000

Blue Line 4 Week Average

The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 280,000 to 295,000 (consensus 290,000) vs the 264,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 287,750 (reported last week as 287,750) to 283,500.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 16.0% lower (much better than the 11.4% reported last week) than they were in this same week in 2013 (see chart below).

2014 claim levels are now near 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending October 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 264,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 287,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since April 15, 2000 when it was 259,000. The 4-week moving average was 283,500, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 287,750. This is the lowest level for this average since June 10, 2000 when it was 283,500. There were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.8 percent for the week ending October 4, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 4 was 2,389,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 1,000 from 2,381,000 to 2,382,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,403,750, a decrease of 10,750 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since June 17, 2006 when it was 2,399,000. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 2,414,250 to 2,414,500.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line)

Steven Hansen