03 October 2014: ECRI’s WLI Unchanged

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index insignificantly declined , remaining in positive territory being range bound around 2.0 – and forecasting little growth over the next six months. However, the gorwth index is at the lowest level seen in almost one year.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.

Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Growth Unchanged

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to show expansion.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index unchanged from 1.6% (originally published as 1.8%) to 1.6%  – and, the level of the index declined from 134.5 (originally released last week as 134.6) to 134.2.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The September update for August shows the rate of economic growth continuing to decline month-to-month:

U.S. Coincident Index

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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

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U.S. FIG Ticks Down

U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 105.0 from a downwardly revised August 105.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The August’s economy’s rate of growth (released in September) improved.

U.S. Lagging Index

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source: ECRI