22 August 2014: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Decline Continues

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index continues its decline but remains in positive territory. A positive number predicts economic expansion to come within the next six months.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.

Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Growth Declines

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to show expansion.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index declined marginally. The growth rate was declined from 2.7% (originally published as 2.7%) to 2.3%  – and, the level of the index improved from 134.3 (originally released last week as 134.3) to 134.8.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The August update for July shows the rate of economic growth again declining marginally month-to-month – and is now showing the rate of growth trend line within a narrow channel since 2013. The current values:

U.S. Coincident Index

/images/z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

/images/z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge at 71-month High

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 106.9 from the unrevised June 105.5 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

“With the USFIG rising further to a 71-month high, underlying inflation pressures are clearly ratcheting up,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The July’s economy’s rate of growth (released in August) declined significantly this month.

U.S. Lagging Index

/images/z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI