from the American Chemistry Council
The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), continued to see moderated upward growth this month, with a 0.2 percent gain over July as measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). This represented a deceleration from the 0.4 percent gain in July and an average gain of 0.5 percent for the first six months of 2014.
Despite the softening pace, the August CAB marked a string of gains going back to April 2013. Though the pace of growth has slowed, current gains have the CAB up a solid 4.3 percent over this time last year, and the barometer remains at its highest level since January 2008.
Though the production indicator was flat in August, construction-related coatings, pigments and other performance chemistries remained strong. Likewise, chemical equities outpaced the broader market this month. Commenting further on this month’s reading, Swift also noted that despite renewed economic troubles in Europe, China, and Latin America, U.S. exports are picking up with the United Kingdom and our NAFTA partners. Said Dr. Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC:
Consistent with other recent economic reports, including the Conference Board and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the Chemical Activity Barometer continues to point to a slowly expanding U.S. economy, at least through the first quarter of 2015. What makes the CAB unique however, is its lead time in predicting the ebbs and flows of the economy, and the slight drag on plastic resins used in consumer and institutional applications parallels the weaker consumer confidence we are seeing,
Chemical Activity Barometer for the Latest Six Months and Year-Ago Month*
Aug-13 | Mar-14 | Apr-14 | May-14 | Jun-14 | Jul-14 | Aug-14 | ||
CAB | 93.5 | 95.6 | 96.1 | 96.7 | 96.9 | 97.3 | 97.2 | |
% M/M | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.1 | |
% Y/Y | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | |
CAB (3 MMA) | 93.1 | 95.1 | 95.5 | 96.1 | 96.5 | 96.9 | 97.1 | |
% M/M | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | |
% Y/Y | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | |
*Percentage changes may not reflect index values due to rounding.
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Caveats on the Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB):
The definition of the CAB:
Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) is a leading economic indicator derived from a composite index of chemical industry activity. The chemical industry has been found to consistently lead the U.S. economy’s business cycle given its early position in the supply chain, and this barometer can be used to determine turning points and likely trends in the wider economy. Month-to-month movements can be volatile so a three-month moving average of the barometer is provided. This provides a more consistent and illustrative picture of national economic trends.
Applying the CAB back to 1919, it has been shown to provide a longer lead (or perform better) than the National Bureau of Economic Research, by two to 14 months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2007 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index.
This index is a mixture of monetary / non-monetary elements with an analysis methodology which is not transparent – and does include some non-chemical industry elements such as the ISM manufacturing index and residential building permits. The composition and concept of the CAB according to the authors:
The CAB comprises indicators relating to the production of chlorine and other alkalies, pigments, plastic resins and other selected basic industrial chemicals; chemical company stock data; hours worked in chemicals; publicly sourced, chemical price information; end-use (or customer) industry sales-to-inventories; and several broader leading economic measures (building permits and new orders). Each month, ACC provides a barometer number, which reflects activity data for the current month, as well as a three-month moving average. The CAB was developed by the economics department at the American Chemistry Council.
The Chemical Activity Barometer is a leading economic indicator derived from a composite index of chemical industry activity. The chemical industry has been found to consistently lead the U.S. economy’s business cycle given its early position in the supply chain, and this barometer can be used to determine turning points and likely trends in the wider economy. Month-to-month movements can be volatile so a three-month moving average of the barometer is provided. This provides a more consistent and illustrative picture of national economic trends.
Applying the CAB back to 1919, it has been shown to provide a longer lead (or perform better) than the National Bureau of Economic Research, by two to 14 months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2007 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index.
As this is a relatively new leading index, our biggest concern is backward revision (which degrades real time accuracy). Thankfully (providently?) backward revisions have been relatively small to date.
No single economic forecasting index has proven to have all the answers, as the reason the economy recesses is a combination of changing dynamics. Econintersect will continue to review this leading index and others as part of our monthly economic forecast.
