Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 295,000 to 320,000 (consensus 305,000) vs the 302,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 300,750 (reported last week as 302,000) to 297,250.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 13.0% lower (better than the 12.7% reported last week) than they were in this same week in 2013 (see chart below).
2014 claim levels are now within the normal range (around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims) of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion (see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending July 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 302,000, an increase of 23,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 5,000 from 284,000 to 279,000. The 4-week moving average was 297,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 15, 2006 when it was 296,000. The previous week’s average was revised down by 1,250 from 302,000 to 300,750. There were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims. /em>
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.9 percent for the week ending July 19, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 19 was 2,539,000, an increase of 31,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 8,000 from 2,500,000 to 2,508,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,535,250, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since October 13, 2007 when it was 2,527,500. The previous week’s average was revised up by 2,000 from 2,542,250 to 2,544,250.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line)