Econintersect: Week 28 of 2014 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) grew according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Rail growth this week was not as strong as previous weeks but remains strong nonetheless.
This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages:
|Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago||Current quantities accelerating or decelerating||Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago|
|4 week rolling average||5.9%||decelerating||accelerating|
|13 week rolling average||6.3%||decelerating||decelerating|
|52 week rolling average||4.0%||accelerating||accelerating|
A summary of the data from the AAR:
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported increased U.S. rail traffic for the week ending July 12, 2014 with 290,607 total carloads, up 4.8 percent compared with the same week last year. Total U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 256,256 units, up 3.2 percent compared with the same week last year. Total combined U.S. weekly rail traffic was 546,863 carloads and intermodal units, up 4 percent compared with the same week last year.
Nine of 10 of the carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2013, including motor vehicles and parts with 16,615 carloads, up 64.7 percent; petroleum and petroleum products with 15,331 carloads, up 16.2 percent; and nonmetallic minerals and products with 40,193 carloads, up 14.2 percent. The commodity that posted a decrease was coal with 106,494 carloads, down 5.3 percent.
For the first 28 weeks of 2014, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 8,009,632 carloads, up 3.4 percent compared with the same point last year, and 7,125,793 intermodal units, up 6 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 28 weeks of 2014 was 15,135,425 carloads and intermodal units, up 4.6 percent from last year.
USA coal production is down 4.1% same week year-over-year – and coal accounts for well over 1/3rd of carloads.
Here is a look at the weekly data comparing it to the same week one year ago, backing out economically less intuitive coal and grain, and comparing growth year-to-date.
|This week Year-over-Year||4.8%||3.2%||4.0%|
|Ignoring coal and grain||12.5%|
|Year Cumulative to Date||3.4%||6.0%||4.6%|
[click on graph below to enlarge]
Current Rail Chart
For the week ended July 12, 2014: