Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 300,000 to 325,000 (consensus 310,000) vs the 302,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 312,000 (reported last week as 311,500) to 309,000.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 10.8% lower (marginally worse than the 11.3% reported last week) than they were in this same week in 2013 (see chart below).
2014 claim levels are now within the normal range (around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims) of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion (see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending July 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 302,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 304,000 to 305,000. The 4-week moving average was 309,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since June 2, 2007 when it was 307,500. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 311,500 to 312,000. There were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.9 percent for the week ending July 5, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 5 was 2,507,000, a decrease of 79,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since June 30, 2007 when it was 2,501,000. The previous week’s level was revised up 2,000 from 2,584,000 to 2,586,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,559,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since October 20, 2007 when it was 2,544,500. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 2,571,250 to 2,572,000.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line)