Of the four regional manufacturing surveys released to date for June, all show manufacturing expansion.
GROWTH IN TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY SLOWED SOMEWHAT
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the June Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity slowed somewhat, while producers’ expectations for future factory activity showed little change and remained at solid levels.
“We saw some moderation in factory growth in June and many contacts mentioned difficulties finding qualified workers,” said Wilkerson. “However, many respondents noted solid expectations for future months.”
TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING SUMMARY
Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity slowed somewhat in June, while producers’ expectations for future factory activity showed little change and remained at solid levels. Firms noted some difficulty finding skilled workers, especially for welders, engineers, and machinists. Most price indexes decreased moderately after increasing for several months. /em>
The month-over-month composite index was 6 in June, down from 10 in May and 7 in April. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Manufacturing activity fell slightly at most non-durable goods-producing plants, while production increased for the majority of durable products, except for machinery which slowed considerably. Most other month-over-month indexes were mixed. The production index dropped from 14 to 2, and the new orders, employment, and new orders for exports indexes also declined. In contrast, the order backlog index rose from 0 to 9, its highest level in seven months. The raw materials inventory index eased from 11 to 8, and the finished goods inventory index also edged down.
Year-over-year factory indexes were mixed. The composite year-over-year index was unchanged, while the production, shipments, and employment indexes edged lower. The new orders for exports index moved into negative territory, while the new orders, order backlog, and capital expenditures indexes recorded positive gains. The finished goods inventory index rose from -1 to 7, but the raw materials inventory index fell slightly.
Future factory indexes recorded little change from the previous month. The future composite index moved from 13 to 12, and the future production, shipments, and employment indexes also inched lower. The future new orders index posted its lowest level in ten months, while future order backlog index was unchanged. In contrast, the future capital expenditures and new orders for exports indexes edged higher. Both future inventories indexes were basically unchanged. All price indexes eased after increasing for two straight months. The month-over-month raw materials price index edged down from 28 to 25, and the finished goods price index dropped from 14 to 2. The year-over-year raw materials index decreased from 65 to 54, and the finished goods price index also fell. The future raw materials price index eased from 53 to 49, while the future finished goods price index also edged lower, indicating fewer firms plan to pass recent cost increases through to customers.
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report)
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Survey (pea-green bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data
In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.