Econintersect Weather and Climate Forecast Update
Written by Sig Silber
April showers bring May flowers but this year Spring is late for the central and eastern part of the U.S. May will be a somewhat wet month. See updated May forecast map from NOAA further down in this article. The seasons are progressing but at a rate that is perhaps one month slower than usual.
I do not have the April data yet (it probably will be issued later today and I may update this report or issue and addendum when it does) but this is what March looked like in terms of that month’s temperatures compared to modern historical temperatures. Brrr. I understand that frost depths along the northern tier may have been as much as twice as deep as normal this winter. So much for building codes as few pipes are mandated to be buried six feet deep which apparently may have been needed this winter in places: Vermont for one.
Now, let’s talk about the impact of Climate Change on Food Security. This information comes from the latest IPCC Draft Report on the Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabily resulting from Climate Change and can be found here. The Tabke below is difficult to read as it often contains two scenarios (an alternative in parentheses both in the Yield and Scenario Identification columns). Some data is based on models that do not reflect the increase in carbon dioxide level which generally stimulates plant growth and may also improve water utilization but the table is clear on which studies incorporate or do not incorporate the impact of carbon dioxide.
As you can see, there is a lot of variation in these estimates. So far I have not been able to sort out this data but according to the text in the full report, the correct answer is less wheat, much less corn and more rice. It seems that a key factor is the type of photosynthesis involved which would appear to change the C3/C4 ratio of plant types as carbon dioxide levels increase. But there are other factors. A good resource for understanding this can be found here or here. It is very complicated. But I am surprised that so far as I know there has not been a model created that integrates the climate forecasts of temperature, precipitation (including seasonal variations), and carbon dioxide levels to expected changes in the C3/C4 ratio for each geographical area. I think it is feasible to create such a model and then calibrate it with the historical record of what has grown where at different points in time with different values of the key parameters. This would provide estimates of crop yields and water requirements.
I hope that no one concludes that I am being critical of the IPCC WGII effort as I am not. Their work is based on a large number of studies and they have done a reasonable job of abstracting from those studies and reporting on them in their report. The problem appears to be that the variation in study results so far has made it impossible to create a global picture of impacts. This is not the fault of the authors of the WGII Draft Report. It is the nature of the problem that crop yields are vary specific to location, crops and varieties/cultivars of the crop (farmers know what they are doing) and many other variables. So it is very difficult to develop a global model and yet that is what is needed. I have purposely avoided reading the WGII Summary for Policy Makers but I am curious if they have acknowledged that they have no idea about how Climate Change impacts food security other than adaptation will be necessary. Farmers have adapted to climate variations from time immemorial. It is what farmers do.
Looking just at the table below, on balance it would seem like a climate change is going to be a wash relative to food security and easily adapted to by advances in agricultural technology. We we also have the factor of population increases so climate change ends up being more about population increase than temperature increases when it comes to food security. Here is an interesting quote from the WG2 final accepted Draft Report 7.2.2
“Food production is an important aspect of food security (7.1), and the evidence that climate change has affected food production implies some effect on food security. Yet quantifying this effect is an extremely difficult task, requiring assumptions about the many non-climate factors that interact with climate to determine food security. There is thus limited direct evidence that unambiguously links climate change to impacts on food security.”
Box 7-1 Table: Projected Impacts for Crops and Livestock in Global Regions and Sub-Regions under Future Scenarios
Crop yield impacts in () correspond to () in the scenario column. – CO2, without CO2 effects; + CO2, with CO2 effects; I, irrigated; R, rainfed. In Europe: Atl., Atlantic; Cont., continental; Med., Mediterranean. pp, precipitation. N, north; E, east; W, west; S, south; C, central.
Regional Impacts on Crops
Region | Subregion | Yield Impacts (%) | Scenario | Reference |
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World |
| Maize: up to -4 (-12) Rice: -9.5(-12) Wheat -10 (-13) | CSIRO(MIROC) | Nelson et al, |
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| 2050 | 2010 |
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East Asia | China | Rice: -19 (+3.5); -32(+2.5);-40(+0.18) | +1ºC; +2ºC;+3ºC | Chapter 24 |
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| Maize: -22(-11) ;-28 (-18) ; -34(-26) | – CO2(+CO2) |
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| Eastern China | Rice: −10 to +3 (+7.5 to +17.5)/ −26.7 to +2 (0 to | 2030/2050/2080 | Tao et al |
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| +25)/ −39 to −6 (−10 to + 25) | – CO2 (+CO2) | 2013 |
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| China (3H | Wheat-maize: +4.5±14.8/ -5.8 ±25.8 | +2ºC / +5ºC, | Chapter 24 |
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| Plain) |
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| North China | IWheat : -0.9 (+23) RWheat : -1.9 (+28) | 2085-00 -CO2 | Yang et al |
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| Plain |
| (+CO2) | 2013 |
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| China | IRice : -14.8 (-3.3) RRice: -15.2 (-4.1) | 2021-2050 -CO2 | Chapter 24 |
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| YangtzeRiver |
| (+CO2) |
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South | South Asia | Maize: -16 ; Sorghum: -11 | 2050 | Knox et al, |
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Asia |
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| 2012 |
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| South Asia | Net cereal production -4 to -10 | +2ºC | Lal (2010) |
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| India | Sorghum winter: up to -7; -11; -32 | A2 2020, 2050, 2080 | Chapter 24 |
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| India | IRice: -4,-7,-10 RRice: -6, -2.5; -2.5 | 2020,2050,2080 | Kumar et al |
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| +CO2 | 2013 |
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| India NE | IRice -10/+5RRice:-35/+5Maize:up to -40Wheat:up | 2030 +CO2 | Kumar et al |
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| to-20 |
| 2011 |
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| India Coastal | IRice -10/+5RRice:-20/+15IMz:-50/-15RMz:-35/+10 |
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| India W.Ghats | IRice:-11/+5RRice:-35/+35Maize,Sorghum up to -50 |
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| India | Monsoon Maize-21 to 0;-35 to 0 ;-35 to 0 | 2020;2050;2080 A2 | Byjesh et al |
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| Winter Maize -13 to +5 ; -50 to +5 ; -60 to -21 |
| 2010 |
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| Pakistan | Wheat: -7 / -24 (Swat), +14 / +23 (Chitral) | +1.5ºC / +3°C | Chapter24 |
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| Pakistan | Wheat: -6/-8 Rice: -16/-19 | B2/A2 2080 | Chapter24 |
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Jordan | Barley -8/+5 Wheat: -20/ +18 | -20% pp/ +20% pp | Chapter24 |
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Asia | (Yarmouk) |
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Africa | All regions | Wheat -17 Maize -5 Sorghum -15 Millet -10 | 2050 |
| Knox et al, |
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| 2012 |
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| All regions | Maize: -24 ± 19 | 2090 | +5ºC | Thornton et |
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| al 2009 |
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| East Africa | Maize: -3 to +15 ; -8.6 to +17.8 | 2030;2050 | Thornton et |
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| Beans: -1.5 to +21.8; -18.1 to +23.7 |
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| al 2010 |
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| Sahel | Millet -20/-40 | +2ºC/+3ºC | Ben |
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| Mohamed |
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| 2011 |
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Central | Brazil (NE) | Maize: 0 to -10, Wheat: -1 to -14, Rice : -1 to -10 | 2030 |
| Chapter27 |
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& South | Brazil (South) | Maize: -15 Bean: +45 | 2080 | + CO2 | Chapter27 |
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America | Paraguay | Wheat: +4/-9/-13 (-1/+1/-5) Maize +3/+1/+6 | 2020/2050/2080; | Chapter 27 |
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| (+3/+3/+8) Soybean: 0/10/-15 (0/-15/-2) | A2 (B2) |
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| Central | Wheat -1 to -9 Rice: 0 to -10 | 2030 |
| Chapter27 |
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| America |
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| Maize: 0/0/-10/-30 Bean: -4/-19/-29/-87 Rice: +3/-3/- | 2030/2050/2070/210 | Chapter27 |
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| 14/-63 | 0 |
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| Panama | Maize: -0.5/+2.4/+4.5 (-0.1/-0.8/+1.5) | 2020/2050/2080 | Chapter27 |
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| A2 (B1) + CO2 |
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| Andean region | Wheat: -14/ +2 Barley: -1 / -8 Potato: 0/ -5 Maize: 0 | 2030 |
| Chapter27 |
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| / -14 |
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| Chile | Maize: -5% to -10% Wheat: -10% to -20% | 2050 | A1F1 + CO2 | Chapter27 |
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| Argentina | Wheat: -16/-11 (+3/+3) Maize: -24/-15 (+1/0) | 2080 | A2/B2 | Chapter27 |
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| Soybean: -25/-14 (+14/+19) | – CO2 (+CO2) |
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North | US Midwest | Maize: -2.5 (-1.5) Soy: +1.7 (+9.1) | +0.8ºC (+CO2) | Hatfield et al |
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America | US SE | Maize: -2.5 (-1.5) Soy: -4.4 (+2.4) |
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| 2011 |
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| US Gt Plains | Wheat: -4.4 (+2.4) |
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| US NW | Winter Wheat: +20/+30, Spring Wheat:+7/+3 | 2040/2080 +CO2 | Stockle et al |
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| 2010 |
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| Canadian | Small grains: -48 to + 18 Oilseeds: -50 to +25 | +1ºC, +2ºC,+20% | Kulsh- |
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| Prairies |
| pp, -20% pp | restha 2011 |
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Europe | Boreal | +34 to +54/+20 to +23/-5 to +22 | 2080 | A2 B2 | Iglesias et al |
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| /Alpine/AtlN |
| HadCM3/ | 2012 |
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| Atl C/Atl | +5 to +19/-26 to -7/-8 to +4 | HIRHAM |
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| S/ContN |
| ECHAM4/RCA3 |
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| ContS/Med | +11 to +33/0 to -22/+5 to -27 |
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| N/MedS |
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Austra- | South | Wheat: -15/-12 | Low/High PAWC | Luo et al, |
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lia |
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| 2080 | +CO2 | 2009 |
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| South-East | Wheat: -29 (-25) | 2080 | (+CO2) | Anwar et al, |
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| 2007 |
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Click here for the latest data from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and other sources on the Econintersect Weather and Climate page.