ECRI’s WLI Growth Index continued its improvement cycle, remaining in positive territory. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. ECRI also issued their future inflation index today.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Unchanged
Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to pick up steam.
According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index declined marginally – but the growth rate again strengthened from 4.1% to 4.2% – although the level of the index fell from 134.6 to 134.9.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The April update for March shows the rate of economic growth declining marginally AGAIN month-to-month – and is showing a clear decline in the rate of growth trend line. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
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U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Dips
U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 104.7 from the revised March 103.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. The March reading was initially reported as 103.1.
“With the USFIG ticking up to a one-year high, underlying inflation pressures are starting to simmer,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The March economy’s rate of growth (released on 25 April) improved this month but remains on a long term downward trendline.
U.S. Lagging Index
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source: ECRI
