Econintersect Weather and Climate Forecast Update
Written by Sig Silber
Yellen believes a significant part of current economic softness is weather related. You can read about that here. (Actually it does not say much about the weather i.e. it is just an excuse.)
Let’s get real. El Nino still appears to be on track for an appearance this summer which will first impact the Southern Hemisphere and then the Northern Hemisphere this winter.
Short term 6 – 14 days, the cold intrusion has returned as a feature of the U.S. forecasts and the low degree of confidence that NOAA has in their forecasts continues.
Here is another ENSO forecast which comes out once a month. This is put out by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society which is based at Columbia University.
It also shows a strong likelihood of an El Nino developing.
North Carolina has a very good State Climatologist so that is a good place to seek information on the impact of a possible El Nino. The following charts were all prepared by NOAA but I found them here so I am using them from the North Carolina Climatologist’s web site.
This chart is interesting:
Notice all the red off the coast of Ecuador and Peru. The current forecast map looks a lot like this but not quite the amount of warm water off of Ecuador and Peru. So that is the difference between what is currently projected and a truly powerful El Nino.
This chart shows the impacts for December through February.
And here is the information for June through August. As you can see, El Nino (as is La Nina) is a worldwide event.
These charts do not show the impact on ocean fisheries which is another important part of the story. Wet or dry; warm or cold can have an impact related to the difference from the norm. Crops that like moisture usually thrive during wet periods but too much moisture can also be harmful and certain crops prefer it to be relatively dry. So one has to look at the impacts region by region. And of course there is the risk of flooding in some places.
Some have raised issues about the coffee crop and in the U.S. the Florida citrus harvest is often impacted by El Nino. Every area highlighted on this map is likely to be impacted either negatively or positively by the probably El Nino which so far no one has ventured to classify as being weak, average or strong although in PDO-/AMO+ conditions, the odds favor a relatively weak and short event i.e. one year not two.