28 March 2014: ECRI’s WLI Again Improves Marginally

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index again improved marginally, and remains in positive territory. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. The USA inflation guage was updated also and is discussed below.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.

Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

ECRI WLI Unchanged

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity was little changed in the latest week.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 3.0% in the week ended March 28, compared with 2.9% in the previous week.

The index itself was unchanged at 133.6. ECRI says “occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.”

The March ECRI index growth rate strengthened to 2.9% from 1.6% in February but still down from 4.0% in January.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The March update for February shows the rate of economic growth declining marginally AGAIN month-to-month – and is showing a clear decline in the rate of growth trend line. The current values:

U.S. Coincident Index

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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

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U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Dips

U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dipped to 103.1 from the revised February 104.4 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. The February reading was initially reported as 104.1.

“With the dip in the USFIG pushing it further below its earlier highs, underlying inflation pressures remain restrained,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February economy’s rate of growth is clearly on a declining trend line.

U.S. Lagging Index

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source: ECRI