ECRI’s WLI Growth Index again improved marginally, and remains in positive territory. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
ECRI WLI Ticks Up
Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity has strengthened further.
According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 2.9% in the week ended March 21, up from 2.3% in the previous week. Growth is now at its highest since early February.
The index itself increased to 133.5 from 133.0. ECRI says “occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.”
The February ECRI index growth rate slowed sharply to 1.6% from 4.0% in January.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The March update for February shows the rate of economic growth declining marginally AGAIN month-to-month – and is showing a clear decline in the rate of growth trend line. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
ECRI Inflation Gauge Rises to 104.1 in February
U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in , as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 104.1 from the revised January 102.1 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. The January reading was initially reported as 101.4.
“Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG remains below its earlier highs,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release, “Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still in check.”
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February economy’s rate of growth is clearly on a declining trend line.
U.S. Lagging Index