Global Economic Intersection
Advertisement
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
Global Economic Intersection
No Result
View All Result

March 24 Weather and Climate Report

admin by admin
March 25, 2014
in Uncategorized
0
0
SHARES
9
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Written by Sig Silber

The chances of an El Nino for next winter continue to increase. We need to begin to plan for this and understand how it may impact the economy.

First let’s talk about the Changes for El Nino this coming winter.

This shows the various model runs last Friday.

ENSO Forecast

The above is an unadjusted forecast but clearly more suggestive of an El Nino coming than the forecast last week. Also notice that none of the newer forecast members (in red) show below the neutral line ENSO (El Nino – Southern Oscillation) conditions.

Another useful tool is the overall sea surface temperature of the world which has been statistically adjusted via screens:

SST

It is a little hard to find but the red area off of Ecuador is the signature of El Nino and this is a forecast map for Sept – Nov of this year i.e. the beginning of winter. The red and orange to the west of Ecuador is the Pacific warm pool and you can track how the forecasts are showing where it will be. The more it shifts to the West, the more conditions are of a La Nina nature. The more to the East, the more conditions will be of an El Nino nature.

One can think of this like a giant bath tub. The warm water sloshes back and forth across the Pacific and this has a major impact on the Climate of much of the World. A normal cycle is 5 to 9 years. Further north in the Pacific this distribution of the temperature of the water determines the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which currently is in its cool phase which you can see by the blue area which appears to be shrinking slightly – hmmm.

How is  El Nino likely to  impact the U.S.?  This first map shows the impact on temperature as compared to ENSO Neutral Conditions.

Temperature Deviation from Mean

It would be colder in the south and warmer in the north but it is not a big difference. But is it enough to put the Florida citrus crop in danger? How might natural gas prices be impacted?

This map shows the impact on precipitation.

Precipitation Deviation from Mean

 

It is wetter in the West and drier in the Southeast.

And again these are not big differences but when you compare the El Nino data not to the mean but to La Nina conditions, it starts to be more significant.

We must keep in mind the reality that our climate is controlled substantially by longer (lower frequency) ocean cycles one in the Pacific and another in the North Atlantic. So the above graphic reflects average conditions and currently we are in something that is anything but average.

Now for the short-term (6 – 10 and 8 to 14 day forecasts)

Notice that this is a forecast for March 30 through April 7  not the next five days.

First the Temperature forecast for days 6 – 10:

Temperature

And now the Precipitation forecast for days 6 – 10:

precipitation 610

And now what they call Week Two which is days 8 – 14. Notice the overlap of days 8, 9, and 10. This reflects the difficulty of precisely timing the movement of highs (ridges) and lows (troughs) which is the primary mechanism for the development of these forecasts especially during the winter when these patterns tend to move from west to east.

Here is the Temperature forecast:

Temperature forecast 814

And here is the Precipitation forecast for the “second week”:

 

Precipitation Forecast 814

In theory the week one each week should be what was forecast as week two the prior week. This time it has not worked out exactly that way as we still seem to be in a winter pattern.  You can track the ability of NOAA to predict things by looking at the prior weeks forecast.

Here are excerpts from what NOAA says about this short-term forecast.

“PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 300 PM EDT MON MARCH 24 2014 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 30 – APR 03, 2014 THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF CALIFORNIA, THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION,
AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO NEW JERSEY. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA. BOTH REGIONS OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGES.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST, MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA, THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO MAINE, AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROUGHS AND/OR RELATIVELY MODEST PREDICTED HEIGHT ANOMALIES. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ELEVATED OVER THE WEST COAST STATES, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM VIRGINIA TO MAINE, AND ALSO OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA.

THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO LIE NEAR THE MEAN POSITION OF THE POLAR JET STREAM AND AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED WEST COAST TROUGH.  ELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA, MUCH OF ARIZONA, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ALONG THE EAST GULF COAST REGION, INCLUDING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THESE REGIONS OF EXPECTED BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ATTRIBUTED
TO 500-HPA RIDGES AND ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS.”

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 01 – 07 2014 BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS FROM MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST, AND OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ADJACENT PANHANDLE REGION. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH 500-HPA TROUGHS AND NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS, FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AND FAR WESTERN ALASKA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OR ALL OF THE FOLLOWING FACTORS… 500-HPA HEIGHTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL, SLIGHT RIDGING, IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH, AND THE INFLUX OF RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR. THERE ARE ELEVATED ODDS OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL THIRDS OF THE CONUS, AND THE ALEUTIANS, MOSTLY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE MEAN STORM TRACK AND POLAR JET. ODDS OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALASKA, RELATED TO MODEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND/OR MODEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT DISTANCE FROM THE MEAN STORM TRACK AND POLAR JET.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS, AND A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXPRESSED BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SURFACE TOOLS.

 

Previous Post

Infographic of the Day: Game of Thrones – Technically Speaking

Next Post

Facebook Is Pushing Brands to Pay for Reach

Related Posts

Philippines To Offer Value-Added Tax Refund To Foreign Visitors By 2024
Economics

Philippines To Offer Value-Added Tax Refund To Foreign Visitors By 2024

by John Wanguba
January 31, 2023
Bitcoin Mining Revenue Rises 50% To $23M In A Month
Business

Bitcoin Mining Revenue Rises 50% To $23M In A Month

by John Wanguba
January 30, 2023
U.S. Inflation Roller Coaster Sparks New Outlook On Long-Ignored Money Supply
Econ Intersect News

U.S. Inflation Roller Coaster Sparks New Outlook On Long-Ignored Money Supply

by John Wanguba
January 30, 2023
Bitcoin Adoption Of Guatemalan Merchants Increases A BTC Tattoo At A Time
Business

Bitcoin Adoption Of Guatemalan Merchants Increases A BTC Tattoo At A Time

by John Wanguba
January 30, 2023
US Economy Recorded Robust Growth In Q4, But With Underlying Weakness
Economics

US Economy Recorded Robust Growth In Q4, But With Underlying Weakness

by John Wanguba
January 30, 2023
Next Post

Facebook Is Pushing Brands to Pay for Reach

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Browse by Category

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Browse by Tags

adoption altcoins banking banks Binance Bitcoin Bitcoin adoption Bitcoin market Bitcoin mining blockchain BTC business China crypto crypto adoption cryptocurrency crypto exchange crypto market crypto regulation decentralized finance DeFi Elon Musk ETH Ethereum Europe finance FTX inflation investment market analysis markets Metaverse mining NFT nonfungible tokens oil market price analysis recession regulation Russia technology Tesla the UK the US Twitter

Archives

  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • November 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • May 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • August 2010
  • August 2009

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized
Global Economic Intersection

After nearly 11 years of 24/7/365 operation, Global Economic Intersection co-founders Steven Hansen and John Lounsbury are retiring. The new owner, a global media company in London, is in the process of completing the set-up of Global Economic Intersection files in their system and publishing platform. The official website ownership transfer took place on 24 August.

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Recent Posts

  • Philippines To Offer Value-Added Tax Refund To Foreign Visitors By 2024
  • Bitcoin Mining Revenue Rises 50% To $23M In A Month
  • U.S. Inflation Roller Coaster Sparks New Outlook On Long-Ignored Money Supply

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Contact Us
  • Bitcoin Robot
    • Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Code
    • Quantum AI
    • eKrona Cryptocurrency
    • Bitcoin Up
    • Bitcoin Prime
    • Yuan Pay Group
    • Immediate Profit
    • BitIQ
    • Bitcoin Loophole
    • Crypto Boom
    • Bitcoin Era
    • Bitcoin Treasure
    • Bitcoin Lucro
    • Bitcoin System
    • Oil Profit
    • The News Spy
    • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Trader
  • Bitcoin Reddit

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

en English
ar Arabicbg Bulgarianda Danishnl Dutchen Englishfi Finnishfr Frenchde Germanel Greekit Italianja Japaneselv Latvianno Norwegianpl Polishpt Portuguesero Romanianes Spanishsv Swedish