07 March 2014: ECRI’s WLI Up Marginally

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index again improved marginally, and remains in positive territory. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. 

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.

Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

ECRI WLI Edges Up

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity strengthened further last week.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 2.3% in the week March 7, up from 1.8% in the previous week. The upturn follows a sharp slowdown in growth during late January and February.

The index itself increased to 133.8 from 133.5. ECRI says “occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.”

The February ECRI index growth rate fell sharply to 1.6% from 4.0% in January.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The February update for January shows the rate of economic growth declining marginally month-to-month – but is still showing reasonable growth. The current values:

U.S. Coincident Index

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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

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ECRI Inflation Gauge Rises to 104.1 in February

U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in , as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 104.1 from the revised January 102.1 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. The January reading was initially reported as 101.4.

“Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG remains below its earlier highs,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release, “Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still in check.”

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The January economy’s rate of growth improved slightly.

U.S. Lagging Index

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source: ECRI