Rail Week Ending 11 January 2014: A Very Bad Week

Econintersect: Week 2 of 2014 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) showed significantly decreased rail traffic according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). The extent of this week’s decrease was so significant that it is decelerating the growth in the rolling averages.

• Four week rolling average rate of growth is decelerating, and compared to the rolling average one year ago is also decelerating;
• 13 week rolling average rate of growth is decelerating, and compared to the rolling average one year ago is also decelerating;
• 52 week rolling average rate of growth is decelerating, and compared to the rolling average one year ago is also decelerating.

Note that although there is deceleration in the averages, they all indicate growth over the same period one year ago. A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported decreased U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Jan. 11, 2014 with 256,849 total U.S. carloads, down 8.2 percent compared with the same week last year. Total U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 235,987 units down 6.7 percent compared with the same week last year. Total combined U.S. weekly rail traffic was 492,836 carloads and intermodal units, down 7.5 percent compared with the same week last year.

Two of the 10 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2013, including grain with 20,367 carloads, up 10.1 percent. Commodities showing a decrease compared with the same week last year included motor vehicles and parts with 11,051 carloads, down 22.5 percent; metallic ores and metals with 20,143 carloads, down 20.3 percent; and, nonmetallic minerals and products with 25,177 carloads, down 16.0 percent.

For the first two weeks of 2014, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 503,695 carloads, down 3.4 percent from the same point last year, and 422,865 intermodal units, down 1.9 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first two weeks of 2014 was 926,560 carloads and intermodal units, down 2.8 percent from last year.

USA coal production is down 5.6% same week year-over-year – and coal accounts for almost half of carloads. The data would worse ignoring coal and grain.

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart

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From EIA.gov:

For the week ended January 11, 2014:

Steven Hansen

Source: