ECRI’s WLI Growth Index again declined moderately, but remains in positive territory. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. This week ECRI also released their lagging index which is discussed below.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
ECRI WLI Growth Slips
A measure of future U.S. economic growth increased last week while the annualized growth rate slowed, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.9 in the week ended Dec. 20 from 130.9 the previous week.
The index’s annualized growth rate decreased to 1.9 percent from 2.1 percent a week earlier.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The December update for November shows the rate of economic growth improving marginally month-to-month – but is still showing reasonable growth. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
US Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Up
U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 100.3 from the revised October 99.7 reading, originally reported 99.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
“With the USFIG staying near October’s 22-month low, underlying inflation pressures remain in a cyclical downtrend,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index. The Novembers economy’s rate of growth continued to degrade.
U.S. Lagging Index