Rail Week Ending 14 December 2013: Traffic Continues to Soften

Econintersect: Week 50 of 2013 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) continues to weaken according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). The data shows a moderate slowing of railcar loads beginning around Thanksgiving relative to the growth seen in the period preceding.

• Four week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is decelerating, but is better than the 4 week rolling average one year ago;
• 13 week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is decelerating, but is better than the 13 week rolling average one year ago;
• 52 week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is accelerating, and is better than the 52 week rolling average one year ago.

For the previous 3 weeks, the Thanksgiving week mismatch to comparable weeks a year ago has made the data difficult to analyze. This week it is clear that a decelerating trend has began.

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported mixed U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Dec. 14, 2013 with 278,664 total U.S. carloads, down 4.9 percent compared with the same week last year. Total U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 268,161 units – the second highest week on record – up 6.4 percent compared with the same week last year.   Total combined U.S. weekly rail traffic was 546,825 carloads and intermodal units, up 0.3 percent compared with the same week last year.

Four of the 10 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2012, including petroleum and petroleum products with 13,888 carloads, up 10.4 percent; and motor vehicles and parts with 18,202 carloads, up 5.5 percent. Commodities showing a decrease compared with the same week last year included metallic ores and metals with 23,147 carloads, down 14.0 percent; and coal with 111,155 carloads, down 8.4 percent.

For the first 50 weeks of 2013, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 14,087,377 carloads, down 0.7 percent from the same point last year, and 12,403,840 intermodal units, up 4.5 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 50 weeks of 2013 was 26,491,217 carloads and intermodal units, up 1.7 percent from last year.

USA coal production is down 2.9% same week year-over-year – and coal accounts for almost half of carloads.

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart

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From EIA.gov:

For the week ended December 14, 2013: