Global Economic Intersection
Advertisement
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
Global Economic Intersection
No Result
View All Result

November 2013 Small Business Optimism Index Marginally Higher

admin by admin
December 10, 2013
in Uncategorized
0
0
SHARES
5
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Econintersect: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)’s November 2013 monthly optimism index up marginally from 91.6 to 92.5.


NFIB reports usually contain blasts directed at Washington by NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg.

The year is not ending on a high note in the small-business sector of the economy. The ‘bifurcation’ continues with the stock market hitting record high levels, but the small-business sector showing little expansion beyond that driven by population growth

There is also a hint that employers are getting an inkling of what Obamacare might mean for labor costs; concern about the cost and availability of insurance bumped up three percentage points after a long period of no real change. Small-business owners who provide health insurance may soon find that their plans are ‘unacceptable’ to Obamacare and be obliged to either pay more for the coverage or abandon it and pay the benefit in cash. This will be a major source of angst and uncertainty in 2014.


Report Commentary:

Economists are raising their forecasts for 2014, but this appears to be based more on “hope” than on any real “change” in the fundamentals. Consumers are a bit more optimistic as are small business owners, but in the context of history, these measures are still weak. The nonmanufacturing ISM is continuing to fall as predicted by the NFIB data. Manufacturing is doing well, but there aren’t many jobs to be had there. Total employment remains millions below its peak (January, 2008, the start of the Great Recession) and much of the decline in the unemployment rate is due to workers leaving the workforce, not new job creation. Absent the stunning decline in the labor force participation rate, estimates put the unemployment rate in double digit levels. So, fewer workers making GDP and population growth projected to be the lowest in decades provide a background for continued slow growth.

NFIB’s December survey did provide some positive signals, with the best job creation figure since 2007 and a large increase in the percent of owners reporting actual capital outlays in recent months. The jump of 9 percentage points in December over November suggests that most of the increase in spending came very late in the year. Expectations for real sales growth and for business conditions over the next six months improved substantially over November readings as well. There is not an obvious event that would trigger these gains in the last month of the year, but they are welcome.

The President thinks the way to address the malaise in the economy is to give another $26 billion to the long-term unemployed, shown to produce new jobs by “independent economists” (we know who that is) according to the President. If you borrow $26 billion from China and give it to consumers, it probably does have a positive impact, but does nothing to fix the economy or encourage labor force participation or improve the labor force. Servicing this debt will soon put a real crimp in the government budget. Also proposed are tax breaks in some part of the country for hiring unemployed people (which only benefits employers who were going to hire anyway; it doesn’t produce extra job creation). Add to that a proposed increase in the minimum wage to $10, alleged to create more spending and jobs, proven by real economists (and common sense) to be incorrect. This is further evidence (if we needed it) that economic policy is about politics and winning votes, not improving the economy.

Even with the improved outlook, more owners still expect the economy to be worse mid-year than expect it to be better (27 percent vs 17 percent). Small business owners will also come face to face with the reality of Obamacare as the year progresses. Since it is an election year, the main theme will be addressing the disparities in income and wealth (i.e. tax the rich and increase welfare programs) rather than promoting policies that would create jobs and raise incomes in a growing economy. This year, policy will be all about votes..

Some other highlights of this Optimism Index include:

Job Creation. NFIB owners increased employment by an average of 0.05 workers per firm in November (seasonally adjusted), half the October figure, but positive.  Seasonally adjusted, 14 percent of the owners (up 2 points) reported adding an average of 3.7 workers per firm over the past few months.  Offsetting that, 12 percent reduced employment (up 3 points) an average of 3.4 workers, producing the seasonally adjusted gain of 0.05 workers per firm overall.  The remaining 74 percent of owners made no net change in employment.  Fifty-one percent of the owners hired or tried to hire in the last three months and 44 percent reported few or no qualified applicants for open positions.  

Hard to Fill Job Openings. Twenty-three percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period (up 2 points), a positive signal for the unemployment rate and the highest reading since January, 2008.  Thirteen percent reported using temporary workers, down 2 points from October.

Sales. The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales in the past 3 months compared to the prior 3 months was unchanged at a negative 8 percent.  Fifteen percent still cite weak sales as their top business problem. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 1 point to 3 percent of all owners after falling 6 points in October (seasonally adjusted), a weak showing. Not much help for hiring or inventory investment in those numbers.

Earnings and Wages. Earnings trends deteriorated a bit in November, falling to a net negative 24 percent.   If these were publically traded companies, the stock indices would not look good.  The economy remains bifurcated, large firms doing fairly well, small businesses showing little growth or improvement. Three percent reported reduced worker compensation and 16 percent reported raising compensation, yielding a seasonally adjusted net 14 percent reporting higher worker compensation (down 2 points). A net seasonally adjusted 14 percent plan to raise compensation in the coming months, up 4 points. Overall, the compensation picture remained at the better end of experience in this recovery, but historically weak for periods of economic growth and recovery. With a net 14 percent raising compensation but a net 2 percent raising selling prices, profits will continue to be under pressure.

Credit Markets. Credit continues to be a non-issue for small employers with just 4 percent of the owners reporting that all their credit needs were not met, down 2 points.  Thirty-two percent reported all credit needs met, and 52 percent explicitly said they did not want a loan.  Twenty-nine percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, up 1 point but a near-record low.  The average rate paid on short maturity loans was steady at 5.4 percent

Capital Outlays. The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past 6 months fell 2 points to 55 percent, stuck in the “mid-50s” since recovering in 2012 from the lows of 45 reached in late 2009 and early 2010.   The small business sector appears to still be in “maintenance mode”, with little expansion planned in the future.  The percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next 3 to 6 months rose 1 point to 24 percent. Capital spending is at its highest point since early 2008 but has been stuck well below normal levels for several years, threatening the improvements in productivity needed to raise real wages.

Inventories.

  • The pace of inventory reduction continued, with a net negative 7 percent of all owners reporting growth in inventories (seasonally adjusted), 1 point worse than October.
  • The negative outlook for the economy and real sales prospects adversely impacted inventory satisfaction. The net percent of owners planning to add to inventory stocks was a net 0 percent (up 1 point), no new orders for inventory when stocks are excessive compared to expected sales.

Inflation. Seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners raising selling prices was 2 percent, down 3 points. Seasonally adjusted, a net 19 percent plan price hikes, up 1 point. Not much of this is likely to “stick” if owners are correctly forecasting the future of the economy over the next six months.

    Steven Hansen

    source: NFIB

     

    Previous Post

    What We Read Today 10 December 2013

    Next Post

    Holiday Season Hiring Likely Will Not Keep Pace with 2012

    Related Posts

    How Will The US Debt Ceiling Crisis Affect Bitcoin Price
    Economics

    How Will The US Debt Ceiling Crisis Affect Bitcoin Price

    by John Wanguba
    May 29, 2023
    Blockchain-Based Reusable KYC Is A ‘Breakthrough’ For Web3 Security
    Business

    Blockchain-Based Reusable KYC Is A ‘Breakthrough’ For Web3 Security

    by John Wanguba
    May 29, 2023
    Unlock the Future of Fashion with NFTs and Wearables
    Business

    Unlock the Future of Fashion with NFTs and Wearables

    by John Wanguba
    May 27, 2023
    Are Bitcoin Casinos Legal?
    Business

    Are Bitcoin Casinos Legal?

    by John Wanguba
    May 26, 2023
    What Are Deposit Tokens?
    Economics

    What Are Deposit Tokens?

    by John Wanguba
    May 22, 2023
    Next Post

    Holiday Season Hiring Likely Will Not Keep Pace with 2012

    Leave a Reply Cancel reply

    Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

    Browse by Category

    • Business
    • Econ Intersect News
    • Economics
    • Finance
    • Politics
    • Uncategorized

    Browse by Tags

    adoption altcoins bank banking banks Binance Bitcoin Bitcoin adoption Bitcoin market blockchain BTC business China crypto crypto adoption cryptocurrency crypto exchange crypto market crypto regulation decentralized finance DeFi Elon Musk ETH Ethereum Europe Federal Reserve finance FTX inflation investment market analysis Metaverse NFT nonfungible tokens oil market price analysis recession regulation Russia stock market technology Tesla the UK the US Twitter

    Archives

    • May 2023
    • April 2023
    • March 2023
    • February 2023
    • January 2023
    • December 2022
    • November 2022
    • October 2022
    • September 2022
    • August 2022
    • July 2022
    • June 2022
    • May 2022
    • April 2022
    • March 2022
    • February 2022
    • January 2022
    • December 2021
    • November 2021
    • October 2021
    • September 2021
    • August 2021
    • July 2021
    • June 2021
    • May 2021
    • April 2021
    • March 2021
    • February 2021
    • January 2021
    • December 2020
    • November 2020
    • October 2020
    • September 2020
    • August 2020
    • July 2020
    • June 2020
    • May 2020
    • April 2020
    • March 2020
    • February 2020
    • January 2020
    • December 2019
    • November 2019
    • October 2019
    • September 2019
    • August 2019
    • July 2019
    • June 2019
    • May 2019
    • April 2019
    • March 2019
    • February 2019
    • January 2019
    • December 2018
    • November 2018
    • October 2018
    • September 2018
    • August 2018
    • July 2018
    • June 2018
    • May 2018
    • April 2018
    • March 2018
    • February 2018
    • January 2018
    • December 2017
    • November 2017
    • October 2017
    • September 2017
    • August 2017
    • July 2017
    • June 2017
    • May 2017
    • April 2017
    • March 2017
    • February 2017
    • January 2017
    • December 2016
    • November 2016
    • October 2016
    • September 2016
    • August 2016
    • July 2016
    • June 2016
    • May 2016
    • April 2016
    • March 2016
    • February 2016
    • January 2016
    • December 2015
    • November 2015
    • October 2015
    • September 2015
    • August 2015
    • July 2015
    • June 2015
    • May 2015
    • April 2015
    • March 2015
    • February 2015
    • January 2015
    • December 2014
    • November 2014
    • October 2014
    • September 2014
    • August 2014
    • July 2014
    • June 2014
    • May 2014
    • April 2014
    • March 2014
    • February 2014
    • January 2014
    • December 2013
    • November 2013
    • October 2013
    • September 2013
    • August 2013
    • July 2013
    • June 2013
    • May 2013
    • April 2013
    • March 2013
    • February 2013
    • January 2013
    • December 2012
    • November 2012
    • October 2012
    • September 2012
    • August 2012
    • July 2012
    • June 2012
    • May 2012
    • April 2012
    • March 2012
    • February 2012
    • January 2012
    • December 2011
    • November 2011
    • October 2011
    • September 2011
    • August 2011
    • July 2011
    • June 2011
    • May 2011
    • April 2011
    • March 2011
    • February 2011
    • January 2011
    • December 2010
    • August 2010
    • August 2009

    Categories

    • Business
    • Econ Intersect News
    • Economics
    • Finance
    • Politics
    • Uncategorized
    Global Economic Intersection

    After nearly 11 years of 24/7/365 operation, Global Economic Intersection co-founders Steven Hansen and John Lounsbury are retiring. The new owner, a global media company in London, is in the process of completing the set-up of Global Economic Intersection files in their system and publishing platform. The official website ownership transfer took place on 24 August.

    Categories

    • Business
    • Econ Intersect News
    • Economics
    • Finance
    • Politics
    • Uncategorized

    Recent Posts

    • How Will The US Debt Ceiling Crisis Affect Bitcoin Price
    • Blockchain-Based Reusable KYC Is A ‘Breakthrough’ For Web3 Security
    • Unlock the Future of Fashion with NFTs and Wearables

    © Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

    No Result
    View All Result
    • Home
    • Contact Us
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • Quantum AI
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitIQ
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • British Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Trader
    • Bitcoin Reddit

    © Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

    en English
    ar Arabicbg Bulgarianda Danishnl Dutchen Englishfi Finnishfr Frenchde Germanel Greekit Italianja Japaneselv Latvianno Norwegianpl Polishpt Portuguesero Romanianes Spanishsv Swedish