Econintersect: Week 48 of 2013 ending 30 November shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Railcar count was down, and intermodal count was down. Weekly overall data is down, and down even more ignoring coal and grain.
The only problem with the statistics this week is that they are being compared to a non-Thanksgiving week 2012 – while week ending 30 November was a Thanksgiving week in 2013. Last week the AAR released some outstanding data as it compared a Thanksgiving week 2012 data against a non-Thanksgiving week 2013 data. This has distorted the rolling averages.
- Four week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is decelerating, but is better than the 4 week rolling average one year ago;
- 13 week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is decelerating, but is better than the 13 week rolling average one year ago;
- 52 week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is decelerating, butbetter than the 52 week rolling average one year ago.
It will take several weeks before the this distortion will work its way out of the data so one can understand the underlying trends.
A summary of the data from the AAR. [note that Econintersect does not agree with the monthly figures in this release using the AAR’s data. It appears there is a contraction in the month-over-month growth using a 4 or 5 week rolling average.]:
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported increased U.S. rail traffic for November 2013 over November 2012. Intermodal traffic in November totaled 1,007,549 containers and trailers, up 7.8 percent (73,004 units) compared with November 2012. The weekly average of 251,887 intermodal containers and trailers per week in November 2013 was the highest weekly average for any November in history. Carloads originated in November 2013 totaled 1,145,353, up 1.3 percent (14,931 carloads) compared with the same month last year.
Eleven of the 20 commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw year-over-year carload increases in November over the same month last year. Commodities with the biggest carload increases last month included grain, up 20.6 percent or 15,685 carloads; petroleum and petroleum products, up 20.0 percent or 9,691 carloads; and motor vehicle and parts, up 10.8 percent or 6,826 carloads.
Commodity categories with carload declines last month included coal, down 4.3 percent or 20,057 carloads from November 2012, and metallic ores, down 10.1 percent or 2,982 carloads.
Excluding coal, U.S. carloads were up 5.3 percent, or 34,988 carloads, in November 2013 compared with November 2012. Excluding coal and grain, U.S. carloads were up 3.3 percent, or 19,303 carloads, in November.
“U.S. rail traffic in November 2013 saw a big decline in coal carloads that was more than offset by gains in carloads of grain and petroleum products,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray. “Carload traffic continues to be consistent with an economy that’s growing at a moderate pace. Meanwhile, rail intermodal volume was extremely strong in November, demonstrating the tremendous value that intermodal has become for rail customers.”
AAR today also reported decreased rail traffic for the week ending November 30, 2013, which included Thanksgiving this year but was a non-holiday week in 2012. U.S. railroads originated 255,628 carloads last week, down 16.3 percent compared with the same week last year, while intermodal volume for the week totaled 207,888 units, down 13.9 percent compared with the same week last year. Total U.S. rail traffic for the week ending November 30 was 463,516 carloads and intermodal units, down 15.2 percent compared with the same week last year.
Even with the Thanksgiving holiday this year, two of the 10 carload commodity groups tracked on a weekly basis posted increases compared with the same week in 2012: petroleum and petroleum products, up 7.2 percent; and grain, up 5.2 percent.
For the first 48 weeks of 2013, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 13,529,500 carloads, down 0.5 percent (66,806 carloads) from the same point last year, and 11,872,914 intermodal units, up 4.3 percent (493,534 units) from last year. Total U.S. traffic for the first 48 weeks of 2013 was 25,402,414 carloads and intermodal units, up 1.7 percent from last year.
USA coal production is down 4.9% same week year-over-year.
This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
This week Year-over-Year | -16.3% | -13.9% | -15.2% |
Ignoring coal and grain | -17.4% | ||
Year Cumulative to Date | -0.5% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
[click on graph below to enlarge]
Current Rail Chart
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From EIA.gov:
For the week ended November 30, 2013:
Source: AAR