Econintersect: CoreLogic’s Home Price Index (HPI) shows that home prices in the USA in October 2013 are up 12.5% year-over-year (reported up 0.2% month-over-month). The year-over-year growth rate was unchanged from the rate of growth reported last month.
This is the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year increase. Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic stated:
In October, the year-over-year appreciation rate remained strong, but the month-over-month appreciation rate was barely positive, indicating that house price appreciation has slowed as expected for the winter. Based on our pending HPI, the monthly growth rate is expected to moderate even further in November and December. The slowdown in price appreciation is positive for the housing market as almost half the states are now within 10 percent of their respective historical price peaks
Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic stated:
In terms of home price appreciation, the housing market appears to be catching its breath as we head into the final months of 2013. The deceleration in month-on-month trends was anticipated as strong gains in home prices over the spring and summer slow in line with normal seasonal patterns and the impact of higher mortgage interest rates.
Comparison of Home Price Indices – Case-Shiller 3 Month Average (blue line, left axis), CoreLogic (green line, left axis) and National Association of Realtors (red line, right axis)
The way to understand the dynamics of home prices is to watch the direction of the rate of change – and not necessarily whether the prices are getting better or worse. Home prices are improving – but the rate growth of year-over-year price improvement is now flat (not accelerating or decelerating).
Year-over-Year Price Change Home Price Indices – Case-Shiller 3 Month Average (blue bar), CoreLogic (yellow bar) and National Association of Realtors (red bar)