Econintersect: Week 46 of 2013 ending 23 November shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Railcar count was up, and intermodal count is up. Weekly overall data is up, and up even more ignoring coal and grain.
The only problem with the statistics this week is that they are being compared to Thanksgiving week 2012 – while week ending 23 November was not a Thanksgiving week in 2013. Next week the AAR will release some pretty ugly data as it will compare a non-Thanksgiving week 2012 data against Thanksgiving week 2013 data.
- Four week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is accelerating, and is better than the 4 week rolling average one year ago;
- 13 week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is accelerating, and better than the 13 week rolling average one year ago;
- 52 week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is accelerating, and better than the 52 week rolling average one year ago.
This is the 18th week of acceleration of the 52 week rolling average.
A summary of the data:
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported increased U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Nov. 23, 2013, with 296,581 total carloads, up 17.4 percent compared with the same week last year, which was Thanksgiving week in 2012. Total U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 267,759 trailers and containers, up 37.7 percent compared with the same week last year. Total combined U.S. weekly rail traffic was 564,340 carloads and intermodal units, up 26.2 percent compared with the same week last year.
All 10 of the carload commodity groups tracked by AAR on a weekly basis posted increases compared with the same week in 2012, led by motor vehicles and parts with 18,075 carloads, up 42.2 percent and nonmetallic minerals and products with 34,048 carloads, up 40.3 percent.
For the first 47 weeks of 2013, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 13,273,872 carloads, down 0.1 percent from the same point last year, and 11,665,026 intermodal units, up 4.7 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 47 weeks of 2013 was 24,938,898 carloads and intermodal units, up 2.1 percent from last year.
USA coal production is down 0.7% same week year-over-year (EIA has not released data for this week and this number is for last week), has become a neutral to positive dynamic on rail.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | 17.4% | 37.7% | 26.2% |
| Ignoring coal and grain | 31.8% | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | -0.1% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
[click on graph below to enlarge]
Current Rail Chart
/images/z rail1.png
From EIA.gov:
For the week ended November 16, 2013:
Source: AAR
