Four Federal Reserve districts have released their November surveys – and all but one are forecasting growth. A complete summary follows.
Growth in Texas factory activity picked up for a third consecutive month in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 13.3 to 16.9, reaching its highest reading in five months.
Other measures of current manufacturing activity indicated further expansion in November. The new orders index came in at 5.4, similar to its October level, and marked a seventh consecutive month of increased demand. The capacity utilizationindex rose to 16.2, its highest level since March 2011, and the shipments index edged up to 14.8.
Perceptions of broader business conditions remained modestly optimistic in November. The general business activity index posted its sixth consecutive positive reading but edged down to 1.9. The company outlook index also posted its sixth positive reading in a row and moved up to 8, its highest level since June.
Labor market indicators reflected continued employment growth and longer workweeks. The November employment index was 5, down slightly from its October level but still indicative of increased employee headcounts. Fifteen percent of firms reported hiring new workers compared with 10 percent reporting layoffs. The hours worked index held fairly steady at a reading of 4.2, suggesting a slight increase in average workweek length.
Upward pressure on prices and wages continued in November. The raw materials price index was unchanged at 22.6, with 27 percent of firms noting an increase in input costs. The finished goods price index remained positive for the fourth month in a row but edged down to 2.2. The wages and benefits index fell from 20.4 to 14.6, indicating that upward pressure on compensation costs eased slightly this month. Looking ahead, 38 percent of respondents anticipate further increases in raw materials prices over the next six months, while 33 percent expect higher finished goods prices.
Source: Dallas Fed
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report)
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Dallas Fed survey (light blue bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data
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In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.
