Econintersect: The American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) trucking index declined 2.8% in October. The level of the index has declined to April 2013’s level. From ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:
From May through September, the index surged 3.5%, including only one monthly decrease over that period. It isn’t surprising for volumes to fall back some after such a good run.
Despite October’s month-to-month decrease, we saw a very robust year-over-year increase and I’m seeing some good signs out of the trucking industry that suggests the economy may be a little stronger than we think. Specifically, the heavy freight sectors, like tank truck, have been helping tonnage this year. But in the third quarter, generic dry van truckload freight saw the best quarterly gains since 2010. I view this positively for the economy. I view it positively for trucking. Now, we have to see if it continues.
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Compared with October 2012, seasonally adjusted tonnage was up 8.0% (largest year-over-year gain since December 2011). Truck tonnage year-to-date is up 5.5% over 2012.
Econintersect tries to validate data across data sources. It appears this month that jobs growth says the trucking industry increased almost 0.1% month-over-month (red line) and trucking jobs growth indexed to Jan 2000 = 100 has has been flat since April 2013 (blue line). Please note using BLS employment data in real time is risky, as their data is normally backward adjusted significantly.
Please note that the ATA does not release an unadjusted data series (although they report the unadjusted value each month – but do not report revisions to this data) where Econintersect can make an independent evaluation. Not all trucking companies are members of the ATA, and therefore it is unknown if this data is a representative sampling of the trucking industry.
source: ATA
