ECRI’s WLI Growth Index again rose slightly continuing marginally in positive territory. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. This week ECRI also released their coincident index which is reported below.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
ECRI WLI Slips
A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower last week, although the annualized growth rate rose, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 131.1 in the week ended Nov. 8 from a revised 131.4 the previous week. That figure originally was reported as 131.0.
The index’s annualized growth rate rose to 2.2 percent from the previous week’s 2.0 percent, which was revised from 1.8 percent.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The November update for October shows the rate of economic growth declined marginally month-to-month – but is still showing reasonable growth. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Slips Further
U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge inched down to 99.5 from the revised September 100.1 reading, originally reported 100.0, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
“With the USFIG easing to a 22-month low, underlying inflation pressures remain in a cyclical downswing,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index. The September economy’s rate of growth continued to degrade.
U.S. Lagging Index