18 October 2013: ECRI’s WLI Growth Lowest Since August 2012

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index decline continued, but remains positive. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. ECRI also released their lagging index this week.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.

Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

ECRI WLI Growth Drops

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a three-week high while the annualized growth rate slipped to the lowest level in over a year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 131.1 in the week ended Oct. 18, down from 130.3 the prior week. That figure was originally reported as 130.4.

The index’s annualized growth rate was 2.0 percent, the lowest since August 2012, down from 2.7 percent the previous week. The prior week’s rate was originally reported as 2.8 percent.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The October update for September shows the rate of economic growth declined marginally month-to-month – but is still showing reasonable growth. The current values:

U.S. Coincident Index

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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

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U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Remains at 20-month low

U.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge remained at 100.0 after August’s number was revised down from the originally reported 100.8, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

“With the USFIG staying at August’s 20-month low, underlying inflation pressures in the U.S. remain in retreat,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index. The September economy’s rate of growth continued to degrade.

U.S. Lagging Index

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source: ECRI