Econintersect: The Japanese resurgence in exports is just not continuing in 
recent months. This could cause problems for the country if things do not pick up before the government’s planned increase in consumption taxes scheduled to go into effect in April 2014. Exports grew 11.5% in September 2013 from the same month last year. This was decline in the growth rate from 14.6% in August and 15.6% in July. Exports to Asia showed the weakest growth while the U.S. market was the strongest.
Japan’s GDP growth was 3.8% (annualized) in the second quarter and is expected to remain positive for the subsequent three quarters until 2Q 2014. Then the 3% increase in the national consumption tax (which takes the form of a value added tax) will have a depressing effect on GDP that could be as large as 3%. See GEI News.
Imports have been increasing in yen value during 2013 as the Japanese currency has devalued against the dollar so the balance of trade remains negative for the sixteenth month in a row.
Sources:
- Japan’s Export Growth Slows in Challenge for Abe: Economy (Keiko Ujikane, Bloomberg, 21 October 2013)
- Japan: Conflicted Policy (GEI News, 04 July 2013)
