Rail Week Ending 12 October 2013: Continued Growth Even with Government Shutdown

Econintersect: Week 41 of 2013 ending 12 October shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Railcar count was up, and intermodal count is up. Weekly overall data is up, and up even more ignoring coal and grain.

• Four week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) again decelerated marginally, but is better than the 4 week rolling average one year ago;
• 13 week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is accelerating, and better than the 13 week rolling average one year ago;
• 52 week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is accelerating, and better than the 52 week rolling average one year ago.

This is the eleventh week of improving data.

A summary of the data:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported increased weekly rail traffic for the week ending October 12, 2013 with total U.S. weekly carloads of 285,372 carloads, up 0.1 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week totaled 260,839 units, up 4.0 percent compared with the same week last year, and up for the 15th straight week in a row.  Total U.S. rail traffic for the week was 546,211 combined carloads and intermodal units, up 1.9 percent compared with the same week last year.

Seven of the 10 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2012, including petroleum and petroleum products, with 13,683 carloads or 15.3 percent, and metallic ores and metals, with 25,866 carloads or 12.8 percent. Commodities showing a decrease compared with the same week last year included coal, with 107,258 carloads or 4.9 percent.

For the first 41 weeks of 2013, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 11,505,038 carloads, down 0.9 percent from the same point last year, and 10,075,183 intermodal units, up 3.7 percent from last year. Total U.S. traffic for the first 41 weeks of 2013 was 21,580,221 carloads and intermodal units, up 1.2 percent from last year.

USA coal production is up 0.1% same week year-over-year, has become a neutral to positive dynamic on rail.

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart

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From EIA.gov:

For the week ended October 12, 2013: