ECRI’s WLI Growth Index was unchanged, and remains positive. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
ECRI WLI Drops
A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to its lowest level since early July while the annualized growth rate also slipped, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 130.4 in the week ended Oct. 4, down from 132.1 the prior week.
The index’s annualized growth rate was 3.8 percent, the lowest since November, down from 4.7 percent the previous week. The prior week’s rate was originally reported as 4.8 percent.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The September update for August shows the rate of economic growth declined marginally month-to-month – but is still showing reasonable growth. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
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U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Remains at 20-month low
U.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge remained at 100.0 after August’s number was revised down from the originally reported 100.8, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
“With the USFIG staying at August’s 20-month low, underlying inflation pressures in the U.S. remain in retreat,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index. The August economy’s rate of growth continued to degrade.
U.S. Lagging Index
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source: ECRI