Blue Line 4 Week Average
The weekly claims were the lowest since September 2007. The market was expecting 315,000 vs the 308,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average improved, moving from 308,000 (reported last week) to 305,000.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is some seasonality which seems to have migrated into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons removes this seasonality. The initial claims are 18.8% lower (better than the 17.9% last week) than they were in this week in 2012.
The rate of improvement this week is compariable to the rate of improvement seen in 2012 (as evidenced on the above chart) – 2013 claim levels are now within the normal range (around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims) of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion (see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending September 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 308,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 307,000. The 4-week moving average was 305,000, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 308,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending September 21, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 21 was 2,925,000, an increase of 104,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 2,821,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,837,250, a decrease of 4,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 2,842,000.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line)