ECRI’s WLI Growth Index declined, but remains positive. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. ECRI also issued this week their inflation guage which shows continued deflationary pressures (see below).
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
ECRI WLI Growth Slows
A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up slightly last week but the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest in 39 weeks, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.5 in the week ended Aug. 30, its highest in four weeks. It stood at 131.3 the previous week.
The index’s annualized growth rate dipped to 3.9 percent, the lowest since November 30, 2012. It stood at 4.2 percent a week earlier.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The August update for July shows the rate of economic growth improved marginally month-to-month – and is positive. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
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Price Pressures Ease Further
Price pressures remain muted, according to a report released Friday by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
The ECRI U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 100.8 in August from 102.0 in July. The gauge is designed to measure the economy’s underlying price pressures and predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.
“With the USFIG falling for the fourth straight month to a 19-month low, underlying inflation pressures in the U.S. continue to recede,” says Lakshman Achuthan, the head of ECRI.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index.. The July economy’s rate of growth had remained in a very tight stable range since the end of the Great Recession – however, it appears to have some degradation (less good).
U.S. Lagging Index
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source: ECRI
