ECRI’s WLI Growth Index declined, but remains positive. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
ECRI WLI Ticks Down
A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up last week but the annualized growth rate slipped, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.3 in the week ended Aug. 23, its highest in three weeks. It stood at 131.0 the previous week, a revision to the initially reported level of 131.1. The index’s annualized growth rate slipped to 4.2 percent, the lowest since the week ended July 19. It stood at 4.5 percent a week earlier.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The August update for July shows the rate of economic growth improved marginally month-to-month – and is positive. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
/images/z ecri_coin.png
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
/images/z ecri_infl.PNG
ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Dips
U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slipped to 102.9 from a downwardly revised 103.1 in June, originally reported as 103.3, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
“With the USFIG dropping to an 11-month low, U.S. inflation pressures continue to ebb,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index.. The July economy’s rate of growth had remained in a very tight stable range since the end of the Great Recession – however, it appears to have some degradation (less good).
U.S. Lagging Index
/images/z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
