Econintersect: The American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) trucking index fell 0.4% in July after rising marginally 0.1% in June. Compared with July 2012, seasonally adjusted tonnage was up 4.7%. Truck tonnage year-to-date is up 4.7% over 2012.
It should be noted that trucking jobs increased in July 2013 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. From ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:
“After gaining a total of 2.2% in May and June, it isn’t surprising that tonnage slipped a little in July,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “The decrease corresponds with the small decline in manufacturing output during July reported by the Federal Reserve last week.”
“Despite the small reprieve in July, we expect solid tonnage numbers during the second half of the year as sectors that generate heavy freight, like oil and gas and autos, continue with robust growth,” Costello said. “Home construction generates a significant amount of tonnage, but as mortgage rates and home prices rise, growth in housing starts will decelerate slightly in the second half of the year, but still be a positive for truck freight volumes. Tonnage gains in the second half of the year are likely to overstate the strength in the economy as these heavy freight sectors continue to outperform the economy overall.”
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Econintersect tries to validate data across data sources. It appears this month that jobs growth says the trucking industry declined nearly 0.3% month-over-month (red line) and trucking jobs indexed to Jan 2000 = 100 has declined for two months (blue line). Please note using BLS employment data in real time is risky, as their data is normally backward adjusted significantly. However, long term trends are showing a steady growth.
Please note that the ATA does not release an unadjusted data series where Econintersect can make an independent evaluation. Not all trucking companies are members of the ATA, and therefore it is unknown if this data is a representative sampling of the trucking industry.
source: ATA
