Econintersect: Week 32 of 2013 ending 10 August shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) was mixed according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Railcar count is down, and intermodal count is up.
- Weekly overall data is up, and up even stronger ignoring coal and grain;
- Four week rolling average is improving, and better than the 4 week rolling average one year ago;
- 13 week rolling average is improving, and better than the 13 week rolling average one year ago;
- 52 week rolling average is improving, and better than the 52 week rolling average one year ago.
The dynamics clearly were declining, and this is the third week of improving data.
A summary of the data:
Six of the 10 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2012, led by petroleum and petroleum products with 12,726 carloads, up 16.8 percent. Commodities showing a decrease compared with the same week last year included grain with 16,754 carloads, down 11.4 percent.
For the first 32 weeks of 2013, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 8,890,938 carloads, down 1.3 percent from the same point last year, and 7,747,032 intermodal units, up 3.5 percent from last year. Total U.S. traffic for the first 32 weeks of 2013 was 16,637,970 carloads and intermodal units, up 0.9 percent from last year.
USA coal production is up 1.5% same week year-over-year, but coal over the last three months has become a neutral to positive dynamic on rail.
|This week Year-over-Year||-0.2%||6.1%||2.7%|
|Ignoring coal and grain||3.9%|
|Year Cumulative to Date||-1.3%||3.5%||0.9%|
[click on graph below to enlarge]
Current Rail Chart
For the week ended August 10, 2013: